The Dubai World Cup Meeting: The British (based) Challenge.

World Racing / Timeform / 25 March 2010 / Leave a comment

Newmarket-based (most of the time) Saeed bin Suroor is included in the British 'Team', along with Italians Luca Cumani and Marco Botti

Timeform looks ahead to Dubai World Cup night and assesses the chances of the raiding British contingent...

"The UAE Derby (14.35) looks a straight shootout between Mike de Kock’s UAE 2000 Guineas winner Musir and the unbeaten Godolphin colt Mendip, who bolted up in the Al Bastikaya last time, so we’ll be cheering on the latter."

Elton John famously sang that 'Saturday night's alright for fighting', but it is also 'alright for racing' and there is plenty to look forward to before the flamboyant songster takes to the stage to bring the curtain down on Dubai World Cup night (though, strictly speaking it will be afternoon here), including a potential Britain-based winner of the World Cup itself (keep reading to see who we fancy).

Numerically, the British team for the final night of the Dubai International Racing Carnival, which can boast four Group 1s including the $10 million World Cup, is as strong as ever, but, as we know, numbers don't guarantee winners and that pesky Mike de Kock, among others from South Africa, as well as America, Japan, Australia and even Norway and Turkey, will be doing their utmost to ensure our raiding party does as well as our Eurovision Song Contest entries have done in recent years.

Did you notice the omission of Dubai from the list of countries above? No, it wasn't an oversight, it's because we are going to include Saeed bin Suroor in the home team. This is arguably unfair, given that more or less the whole of the Godolphin string winters in Dubai, but we'll take every advantage we can get and, on the basis that bin Suroor and his horses spend the majority of their time in Newmarket, we are going to celebrate their successes as our own. However, we will have to concede defeat should any of the other locally-based trainers hit the mark.

So which races do the home team have the best chance of winning? The Al Quoz (13.20- all times are GMT) looks wide open and, if Sirocco Breeze doesn't land it for Godolphin, we'll be looking to a few at bigger prices. Our best hope aside from Sirocco Breeze appears to be Marcus Tregoning's Finjaan. He's a much better sprinter than he showed at Haydock last year (heavy ground), and the form of his win in the Lennox now reads much better than it did at the time.

Saeed bin Suroor saddles two of the three who sit at the top of Timeform's ratings in the Godolphin Mile (13.55), Desert Party and Skysurfers (new Godolphin trainer Mahmoud Al Zarooni is responsible for the other, Calming Influence). Many will jump on the fact that Frankie is on the first named, but he's a fragile sort and is plenty short enough in a race that has the potential to be tactical and it's hard to forget the way Skysurfers dismissed Eagle Mountain (admittedly over too short a trip) on his reappearance.

The UAE Derby (14.35) looks a straight shootout between Mike de Kock's UAE 2000 Guineas winner Musir and the unbeaten Godolphin colt Mendip, who bolted up in the Al Bastikaya last time, so we'll be cheering on the latter.

Godolphin's Breeders' Cup Sprint fourth Gayego (shaped well on reappearance) and Singapore 'Superstar' Rocket Man (coincidence backers will like this one with Elton John performing after racing) rightly head the betting in the Golden Shaheen (15.15), the latter having been beaten only once in his homeland and a winner as recently as February, so David Nicholls' Haydock Sprint Cup winner Regal Parade and Kevin Ryan's veteran Benbaun will likely be playing for places at best.

The Dubai Duty Free (15.55) is there for the taking for Luca Cumani's Presvis (runner-up in 2009) barring mishaps (please don't give him too much to do Cristophe!), as it's hard to see his rival Alexandros turning around Jebel Hatta form under anything but tactical circumstances.

The Sheema Classic (16.35), run over a mile and a half on turf, looks sure to go the way of a British-based runner, with the likes of Mick Channon's Youmzain and John Gosden's Dar Re Mi, second and fifth respectively in last year's Arc, sure to have their share of supporters, but Sir Michael Stoute's Spanish Moon could be the most interesting of them all, having been trained with this in mind all winter (runner-up to Eastern Anthem last winter) after his enforced hiatus from racing in Britain last year (last seen when runner-up in the Hong Kong Vase).

Finally, the World Cup itself (17.45). Though the Americans have won five of the last six renewals of the World's richest race, this year's switch to the synthetic surface, Tapeta, should, theoretically, bring the Europeans into the picture more. According to the betting, last year's Champion Stakes winner Twice Over (trained by Henry Cecil) is the pick of the British brigade, but it is another horse trained in Newmarket we are most interested in, Marco Botti's Gitano Hernando. From humble beginnings (maiden winner at Wolverhampton) at two, Gitano Hernando progressed fast at three and signed off with a Grade 1 success at Santa Anita (on pro-ride). Though aimed at the Winter Derby Trial on his recent reappearance, in which he impressed when winning by four and a half lengths, the plan was always to go to Dubai and Gitano Hernando looks to have been underestimated, especially as there's still a feeling that he's yet to show just how good he really is.

While this might have read like we expect Dubai World Cup night to be a British (we use the term loosely given that we are also depending on Saeed bin Suroor and two Italians in the shape of Luca Cumani and Marco Botti) benefit, we are pragmatists here at Timeform and, realistically, it will be a surprise if we can't register at least a couple of wins with the odds stacked in our favour more than ever.

Racecards for Dubai World Cup night will be available from timeform.com. Remember, the first race is at 13.20 (GMT).