The Timeform Grand National Guide: 'The Aintree Factor'

Tipping / Timeform / 02 March 2010 / Leave a comment

'The Aintree Factor' was in existence long before Simon Cowell's 'X Factor'

'Horses for courses' has long been one of horseracing's most-used cliches, so much so that it has spawned its own spin-off phrase for jumping's greatest race, the Grand National. 'The Aintree Factor' may sound like a lame Simon Cowell-inspired initiative forming part of the current Racing For Change rebranding campaign but, in fact, the tag has been associated with the National ever since Red Rum dominated the race back in the 'seventies.

"previous course experience has often outweighed handicapping issues in recent years. A prime example came in 2007, when nine of the twelve finishers had had previous experience of the big fences, notably winner Silver Birch (won 2004 Becher Chase)"

Although Red Rum enjoyed significant success away from Aintree during his peak years, there was no doubt he reserved his best for the daunting National fences in the latter stages of his career, a comment which also applied to contemporaries of his such as Eyecatcher and The Pilgarlic. There have been numerous similar examples since that era - Corbiere, Greasepaint and West Tip were notable Aintree performers of the 'eighties - and it is fair to say that the 'Aintree Factor' has returned with a vengeance during the past decade, possibly as a result of modifications to the fences in 2001.

Indeed, previous course experience has often outweighed handicapping issues in recent years. A prime example came in 2007, when nine of the twelve finishers had had previous experience of the big fences, notably winner Silver Birch (won 2004 Becher Chase), runner-up Mckelvey (promising sixth in 2006 Becher) and fifth-placed Liberthine (won 2006 Topham Chase). In addition, the also-rans that day included Numbersixvalverde (2006 National winner), Longshanks (placed twice in Topham), Hedgehunter (2005 National winner) and Clan Royal (won Topham and Becher in 2003 and placed twice in National). Therefore, it is no surprise to see plenty of Aintree regulars towards the head of the ante-post betting this time around.

The last three winners are all entered again and, although the veteran Silver Birch [120] seems unlikely to get a run, both Comply Or Die [32] and Mon Mome [14] must warrant respect given how well they've taken to the course in the past - Comply Or Die finished a fine second twelve months after his win, whilst last year's 100/1 hero Mon Mome had also been shaping very well in 2008 prior to being badly hampered at second Becher's. In total, nine of the seventeen finishers from the 2009 renewal have remain in the race this year, including the Paul Nicholls-trained pair My Will [75] (third) and Big Fella Thanks [9.6] (sixth), plus Welsh raider State of Play [28] (fourth), who'll be bidding to end a losing run for horses trained in the Principality which dates back to 1905.

In addition to that trio of National winners, there are five other entrants with previous winning form over the National fences, including the Dessie Hughes-trained pair Black Apalachi [17.5] and Vic Venturi [21], who've won the last two renewals of the Becher Chase. Ironically, Black Apalachi has failed to complete on both visits to the track either side of that runaway success, but he was still travelling strongly at the head of affairs when unseating Denis O'Regan in rather a soft incident at second Becher's in the 2009 National and already appeals as an Aintree specialist. By contrast, Vic Venturi's jumping was far from convincing during his Aintree win and that ponderous style could prove costly in the cut-and-thrust of the National, particularly when faced by a stronger pace and much larger field.

Mr Pointment [290] produced a sparkling round of jumping when winning the 2007 Becher and, in the most part, has been similarly sure-footed on both subsequent visits to Aintree. However, he's almost certainly not the force of old and has become the latest recruit snapped up on the cheap by eccentric owner Fergus Wilson, racing's answer to Don Quixote, who (together with his wife Judith) has been tilting at windmills regularly in recent seasons - the Wilsons admittedly had something to shout when their 100/1 shot Cerium [120], who is a Paul Nicholls cast-off (like Mr Pointment), finished fifth behind Mon Mome in 2009.

Trust Fund also had a spell with Nicholls before being switched to Richard Barber for a successful hunter chase campaign in 2009, the highlight of which was a fluent victory in the Fox Hunters at Aintree (leading National fancy Backstage [30] managed only eighth), which will presumably be his target again this time around rather than the big race itself. Irish Raptor [48] was the other winner over the big fences at last year's three-day Grand National meeting, his victory in the Topham certainly not coming out of turn - he'd finished a narrow second in the 2008 renewal and completed the course safely on three further occasions. That impressive Aintree record is all the more significant when one considers Irish Raptor is a notably clumsy jumper of conventional fences, a comment which also applied to the aforementioned Clan Royal.

Snowy Morning [26] has also had his jumping problems away from Aintree, yet he's completed the course in the last two Nationals, notably when third to Comply Or Die in 2008. Runner-up that day was King Johns Castle [60], who'll presumably prove popular with punters ahead of his second tilt at the race (missed 2008/9 with injury). However, it is worth noting that the statistics aren't exactly stacked in his favour - the legendary pair L'Escargot (1975) and Red Rum (1977) are the only horses in the past fifty-six horses to have won the Aintree showpiece after finishing runner-up in it previously.