Cheltenham Festival: The Irish View

Tipping / Timeform / 16 March 2010 / Leave a comment

Captain Cee Bee has good prospects of adding a second Festival win to his CV

Ahead of the famous Cheltenham roar, Timeform's Irish Team offer some advice on how they think the challenge from across the Irish Sea will fare over the four days, and offer a play on Betfair's Irish winners market.

"Captain Cee Bee looked to be going best upsides the eventual winner Sizing Europe when coming to grief at the last in a Grade One chase at Leopardstown and has been favourite for the race since"

Day 1 features a very strong Irish presence with five of the six favourites all hailing from the Emerald Isle. The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is the opening contest and it will be something of a surprise should Dunguib not chalk up an early Irish winner. Philip Fenton's charge has been favourite ever since running out an impressive winner of the Champion Bumper here last term and, with his unbeaten record over hurdles stretched to four when running out a facile winner of the Deloitte at Leopardstown last month, he's very difficult to oppose. Get Me Out Of Here looks the only serious danger, but the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Blackstairmountain and Flat Out have the ability to go close if for whatever reason Dunguib was below his best.
Next up is the Arkle and if the market is anything to go by, we should be two from two come 2.15. Captain Cee Bee looked to be going best upsides the eventual winner Sizing Europe when coming to grief at the last in a Grade One chase at Leopardstown and has been favourite for the race since, with a routine success at Naas last time merely cementing his place at the head of the market. Sports Line and Osana add strength in depth to an already strong challenge.
The Irish chance in the Champion Hurdle doesn't look as strong as it once did, with former champion Sublimity ruled out last week, and Solwhit having an interrupted preparation. Go Native has a favourite's chance, but it's hard to predict with any great confidence that this race will provide the Irish with a third winner.
The Irish challenge is thin on the ground in the William Hill Handicap Chase, and it's hard to see past a British-trained winner. The last two races, however, look ripe for the taking, with cross-country King Enda Bolger typically mob-handed and his powerful team include last year's 1-2 Garde Champetre and L'Ami.The David Nicholson mares' race looks a match between Quevega and Voler La Vedette on paper, the pair vying for short-priced favouritism, and they can make it a winning first day for the Irish.

After Day 1,which promises a glut of Irish winners, St Patrick's Day looks set to get off to a quiet start for the raiders in the National Hunt Novices' Chase, Becauseicouldntsee the best hope, with his jumping and stamina clearly assets, but it would still be very much one for the 'bonus' category were he to succeed. Half an hour later sees a strong hope in the form of Rite of Passage, however. He's two from two over hurdles, both wins achieved with consummate ease (jumped well), but what really marks him out as a top hurdling prospect are his Flat exploits last autumn, notably when slamming his rivals in the November Handicap at Leopardstown (gave Donnas Palm 1 lb and an 8-length beating). In addition to the favourite, Ireland have an excellent second string courtesy of Quel Esprit, who looked a class act at Cork prior to being undone by a falsely-run race last time.
The next two races, the RSA Chase and the Queen Mother Champion Chase are both notable for the strength of the home challenge. Our best hopes reside with Weapons Amnesty and Big Zeb respectively. The jumping of both has come under scrutiny in the past, but though that element has been rather overplayed, for Big Zeb in particular (foot perfect either side of Sandown since returning from a break), the suspicion remains that both are just playing for places if the market leaders bring their A-game.
The Coral Cup follows and whilst the British challenge looks dominant, the Willie Mullins pair of Deutschland and C'est Ca are certainly not without a chance, the former having come in for substantial support in recent days and potentially well-handicapped given his chase form.
There is less to look forward to in the Fred Winter, especially as Capellanus is now a doubtful runner, but the closing event on the card, the Champion Bumper, sees a typically strong Irish challenge. Willie Mullins has his usual good hand, Day of A Lifetime and Bishopsfurze his two best candidates, but a supporting cast including Elegant Concorde, Tavern Times and Shot From The Hip means this race is probably a given.

The Jewson opens the third day and, as usual, it looks a highly competitive affair. Ireland have their fair share of hopefuls, though. China Rock is the shortest in the betting at the time of writing, trading around 10 on Betfair, and the likelihood of a sound surface is a positive, but the same could be said for a couple of Noel Meade's, Nicanor and Jered, the former in particular making plenty of appeal in a race which should play to his strengths.
Alfie Sherrin seems likely to be all the rage in the Pertemps Final, and rightly so given his form and scope for improvement, but Smoking Aces from the Tom Taafe yard, themselves no strangers to Festival success, looks a solid alternative. He's thoroughly game and may be suited by this longer trip. Of the others, one who could make an impact at bigger odds is Time Electric, who shaped well when fifth here in November.
The Ryanair and the World Hurdle are the twin peaks of Thursday's card, and though the latter looks beyond Ireland's reach due to Big Buck's, the Ryanair definitely provides the Emerald Isle with a reasonable opportunity to add to their tally. Tranquil Sea looks the main hope judged on his emphatic Paddy Power success here in November, not to mention his facile warm-up victory at Leopardstown, but Schindlers Hunt also has a good record at the track and should be thereabouts, while Golden Silver and J'y Vole both have a better chance than the market suggests.
The two handicaps which bring Thursday's proceedings to a close are the Festival Plate and Kim Muir, and it's indicative of how open they look that 8/1 the field is available on both contests at the time of writing. Ireland's best hopes are on offer at virtually double that price, too, so the percentage call is to suggest that neither will yield an Irish victory.

Gold Cup day kicks off with the Triumph Hurdle and it should give the Irish an early winner, Alaivan, Carlito Brigante and Secant Star all holding excellent chances.
The County Hurdle looks a particularly competitive affair and it's hard to say with any conviction that this too will go the way of the Irish, but with Tawaagg, Noble Prince and Puyol all representing strong form lines, this race looks something of a 50/50. Enterprise Park, Fionnegas and Shinrock Paddy make up a strong Irish challenge in the Albert Bartlett and we expect one of that trio to add to Ireland's tally.
Cooldine is the sole realistic challenger from across the Irish Sea in the feature event, but it's very difficult to see the winner not coming from the Nicholls' pair of Kauto Star and Denman.
Neither the Foxhunters nor the Grand Annual, contain any strong Irish runners at first glance and with the Martin Pipe conditional jockey's race looking a wide-open contest, it's difficult to see any more than two Irish winners on the final day.

RECOMMENDATION

With Betfair offering a market on the number of Irish-trained winners at Cheltenham this week, we would advise a small play on 9 or more.

Free form for all this week's races at Cheltenham and elsewhere is available at the Timeform website