Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post: Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Tipping / Timeform / 23 February 2010 / Leave a comment

Will Dunguib get the Irish off to a flying start?

Timeform look ahead to the Festival's curtain raiser in a bid to establish whether Dunguib really is the good thing his price suggests.

"In short, Dunguib is a potential top-notcher, the best bumper horse in the history of Timeform ratings no less"

The first race of the Cheltenham Festival takes place in a cauldron of tension and excitement at the best of times, but the likely presence of odds-on chance Dunguib is sure to make for an even more electric opening than usual.

The 'Irish Banker' is a much-mentioned phenomenon come March, and last season's outstanding Champion Bumper winner is surely going to fill that position this time around in his bid to emulate the likes of compatriots Like-A-Butterfly and Brave Inca by justifying favouritism in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, a race the Irish have dominated since the mid-'nineties.

An early bid for an open-looking Champion Hurdle was reportedly being considered by connections, but it seems the novice route is the preferred option now and it's hard to argue with the decision given Dunguib, outstanding talent though he could well be, is unlikely to get away with the sort of jumping lapses he's made in his brief hurdling career so far in a Championship race; in essence, Dunguib can probably afford a mistake or two against inferior rivals in the Supreme, but not in a Champion Hurdle.

There's always a chance his jumping frailties have been overstated, anyway. He's certainly not a poor jumper, and had it been any horse other than Dunguib they probably wouldn't be mentioned at all, though that's invariably the case when it comes to an odds-on chance in top company - just recall Kauto Star's many misplaced critics down the years, or those who regularly made a case for opposing Baracouda in his pomp. In any case, surely more striking than errors in Dunguib maintaining his unbeaten record over timber was the manner in which he cruised past a trio of useful rivals without breaking sweat. In short, Dunguib is a potential top-notcher, the best bumper horse in the history of Timeform ratings no less, and at anything bigger than [1.8] on the day he's surely worth backing for all he's sure to face far more rivals than in his previous starts over hurdles - he simply looks a cut above the rest.

Not that the Supreme has to revolve around a straight win or lay position of Dunguib, though. The race obviously has a perfect place-only shape to it, and heading the list of Dunguib's rivals could well be the unbeaten Get Me Out of Here. Jonjo O'Neill's novice has patently done all that's been asked of him so far, and the form he showed when winning a well-contested renewal of the totesport Trophy at Newbury from a mark of 135 last time isn't far behind that needed to win an average renewal. Proven in the hurly-burly of a big field, and a most fluent jumper to boot, Get Me Out of Here seems sure to make his presence felt with further improvement surely on the cards.

Menorah shot to second favouritism when dispatching Bellvano et al in a novice at Kempton on Boxing Day, showing bags of pace and stretching clear in the straight. His subsequent odds-on defeat at Ascot is best forgiven bearing in mind how much ground he lost at the last, but the feeling is a testing extended two miles isn't going to play to his strengths.

At similar odds to Menorah at the time of writing is Oscar Whisky, who, like Get Me Out of Here, has yet to taste defeat in his career. Clearly, he could be anything, having again landed the odds on the bridle at Sandown on his most recent start, but there isn't the strength to Oscar Whisky's form that there is to either Dunguib's or Get Me Out of Here's and there has to be a chance he'll be found out for lack of know-how, if not ability, in a far more competitive race than he's faced previously.

The likes of Peddlers Cross and Dr Whizz are also likely to arrive unbeaten and couldn't be ruled out, but a final positive mention falls the way of Salden Licht, a very useful Flat horse who's just the type to leave the form of his two hurdling wins behind in a well-run, better-quality race.

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