A warm welcome in the Valleys for McCoy? - Welsh National ante-post preview

Tipping / Timeform / 04 January 2011 / Leave a comment

Ballyfitz crashes out at second Becher's in the 2010 Grand National but, despite those clumsy tendencies, he appeals as a live outsider for the Welsh equivalent.

Man-of-the-moment Tony McCoy hasn't got much (if anything) left to achieve in a sport he has dominated for over fifteen years, particularly after Don't Push It's memorable win in the Grand National at Aintree back in April.

"With conditions likely to be very testing should Chepstow survive the wintry weather this time, Synchronised looks very much the one to beat."

There is one big-race win still missing from his CV, however, as the Welsh National has proved a source of frustration for the record-breaking champion jockey down the years. A remote fourth place on the ill-fated Eudipe in 1998 is the best that McCoy has managed in eight previous attempts at the Chepstow showpiece, a trail of woe that has included dismal defeats on the short-priced favourites Cyborgo (pulled up in 1997) and Take Control (tailed-off sixth in 2001). Indeed, McCoy has often opted out of a trip across the Severn Bridge in recent years to ride at Kempton or Leopardstown instead, but there are no such distractions this time around as Chepstow has been forced to move its festive marathon to this weekend after snow claimed the original intended date of December 27th. McCoy may well have been there on that date anyway, as Synchronised could well be the horse that finally breaks his Welsh National duck. Synchronised already has a National win to his name, having shown deep reserves of stamina to get the better of former Welsh National heroine L'Aventure in last season's Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, in doing so notching up his third win of a highly satisfactory novice chase campaign (had also won at Chepstow earlier that term). Hurdles have been back on the agenda for Synchronised so far this term and he's caught the eye on both occasions, notably when a keeping-on sixth to Lush Life at Cheltenham last time. With conditions likely to be very testing should Chepstow survive the wintry weather this time, Synchronised looks very much the one to beat.

His task has been made easier by the news that another National winner from last spring, Irish National heroine Bluesea Cracker, will not now be making the trip across the Irish Sea due to lameness. There are no such problems for the first two from last winter's renewal, Dream Alliance and Silver By Nature, who both seem set to be in the line-up. In truth, however, it is difficult to make a case for either of that pair on recent evidence, particularly as Dream's Alliance's jumping seems to be getting worse with age. Silver By Nature, meanwhile, made an uninspiring reappearance in the Hennessy at Newbury and, for all that this race should suit him much better, is also probably best opposed.

Paul Nicholls, of course, always warrants respect in the top chases and he is set to be represented by the novice Watamu Bay, who seems sure to relish the longer trip and has taken well to fences upon joining the yard this term, winning small-field novices at Exeter on his last two starts. However, the handicapper hasn't taken any chances at all with him - a subject Nicholls has touched upon in his Betfair column in recent weeks - and that is probably enough reason to look elsewhere. Dance Island has only had one more run over fences than Watamu Bay and is likely to be popular in the betting on the strength of his second to Burton Port in a Grade 2 novice at Aintree late last season. However, he is another who probably doesn't have too much scope off his current handicap mark, a view which is backed up by his remote second to King Fontaine at Haydock recently. Maktu has also had to settle for the runner-up spot behind King Fontaine at Haydock this autumn, though he pushed that rival much closer and has long been thought of as an ideal Welsh National type by his trainer Pat Murphy (who saddled Supreme Glory to win in 2001).

The Venetia Williams-trained Summery Justice is also likely to be prominent in the betting, particularly as his reappearance win at Bangor has been working out very well (both placed horses have won since), whilst there have been encouraging signs in recent weeks that his yard could be hitting form again. However, he'd failed to fully convince with his jumping prior to that win in North Wales and his relative lack of experience could be a factor in a race of this nature.

Jumping, of course, is a long-standing issue with Ballyfitz and that is the main reason he is without a win over fences since his novice campaign. That said, he has dropped to a very attractive handicap mark - now 10 lb lower than when fifth in the 2009 renewal - and could be worth chancing at huge odds despite those jumping concerns, particularly as he appeals as one of the stoutest stayers in this field. Indeed, his staying-on fourth in the valuable Betfair "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle at Haydock last time suggests he retains all of his ability. Hills of Aran finished a place behind Ballyfitz that day and is another outsider to consider, even though he cut little ice in the face of very stiff tasks back over fences at Newbury on both starts since, including in the Hennessy on the first occasion. The fact that the Welsh National is unlikely to be run at anything like so strong a pace as the Hennessy should work in Hills of Aran's favour, whilst the step-up in trip is also likely to suit as he's looked increasingly lazy of late and probably needs a thorough test of stamina nowadays.

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