Grand National Trends

Features / Timeform / 29 March 2010 / Leave a comment

2005 winner Hedgehunter overcame the hoodoo for horses carrying over 11 stone

Timeform highlight some of the key trends for the Grand National...

"Any number of hypotheses have been bandied about, and it should be pointed out at this early stage that not colours of horses, gender of rider nor prettiness of silks have any tangible historical bearing on who wins the world’s most famous steeplechase"

The unparalleled test provided by the Grand National- the race unique with regards its distance and one of only five run over the famous Aintree spruce fences- has lent itself more than any other to trend analysis by novices and professionals alike down the years. Any number of hypotheses have been bandied about, and it should be pointed out at this early stage that not colours of horses, gender of rider nor prettiness of silks have any tangible historical bearing on who wins the world's most famous steeplechase. So which trends are worth following?

Stamina is clearly a good place to start, the National being longer than any other race in the British calendar. There is an old wives' tale which says that one needs a two-and-a-half-miler to win the Aintree marathon; however, of all winners since 1994 only Red Marauder had failed to win a chase over three miles or more prior to securing Aintree glory. Incidentally, Red Marauder is also the only winner this century not to have won or been placed in a major staying handicap, with six of the other nine hitting the frame in either the Welsh or Irish Grand Nationals.

It used to be the case that experience over the likes of Becher's Brook, The Chair and Valentine's was highly valued, and trainers would endeavour to give a National hope a taste of the fences beforehand- indeed, between 2002 and 2007 only one National hero, Numbersixvalverde, had never been tried over the course previously. However, the emphasis now placed by the official handicapper on the so-called "Aintree factor" has led to runners with good course experience being punished, so most of the protagonists these days will be tackling the idiosyncratic obstacles for the first time. Sound jumpers are still rewarded, though- the last ten horses to win the National had previously only clocked up seven falls over fences between them; interestingly, three of those falls came in the Aintree showpiece itself.

One of the more famous patterns in the race used to be that a weight of eleven stone or more on a horses' back was something akin to a millstone around the neck. The compression of the weights in recent years has led to the supposed collapse of this theory, Hedgehunter in 2005 and Mon Mome last year both shouldering such weights, but it is worth mentioning that the last time a horse carried over a stone more than the bottom weight to victory was Corbiere way back in 1983. Furthermore, since Corbiere only two horses, namely Party Politics and Bindaree, have won the race aged eight or younger.

So with all that considered, what of the 2010 renewal?