McCoy and Johnson: Bargain Basement Jockeys

Blogs / Timeform / 28 January 2010 / Leave a comment

McCoy returns after yet another winner

Kieran Packman suggests a way of making the big name jockeys pay

"evidence from the last five seasons strongly suggests that engaging McCoy, or equally Johnson, should only be bet inducing when it’s in a selling hurdle"

As I'm sure is the case for many punters, systems seem to go from bombproof to bombed out just at the stage when I take the plunge with live funds. Venetia Williams' record in December was the most recent to suffer, her record in that month to a £1 level stake in the four years prior to the most recent: +£19.65, +£29.76, £+20.67, £+13.43. Her record in 2009? A thumping loss predictably, as I'd belatedly latched on to this apparently 'easy money'.

Despite years of evidence suggesting I'm better off sticking to the now rather quaint method of simply finding winners at value prices, I shall persevere in the quest for a standing order system. With that in mind, a notable set of returns stood out when looking this week at the record by race type of our leading jockeys. I'll hold my hands up, I set out to test the theory that Richard Johnson was deserving of his cutting chatroom nickname of 'Deckie', particularly when aboard novices, which has often been the accusation, even from the supposedly reasoned judges within the paneled offices of Timeform House. There was little compelling evidence as it turned out (ok, none at all), but having broken down the records of both Johnson and his habitual championship conqueror AP McCoy, there were two profit figures that had the sore thumb effect.

"The booking of McCoy catches the eye" is pretty standard previewer's fare, but evidence from the last five seasons strongly suggests that engaging McCoy, or equally Johnson, should only be bet inducing when it's in a selling hurdle. Both show a hefty profit in such races, particularly when compared to their largely considerable loss in all other divisions. To be specific, McCoy has a 38% strike-rate and a £24.45 ROI to a £1 stake, while Johnson's record is 19% with a £30.18 ROI.

This may sound from the same school of thinking as the old betting shop staple "He's not gone there for the fresh air", but the sample sizes are meritorious, 128 rides in McCoy's case and 135 for Johnson. Pinning down why is difficult, perhaps trainers do only bother to parachute in the big guns at that level because that's when they need them most. As it is, it's a small anomaly that might be worth following. Unless I remember to back them all of course.