Wonderful World Of Wimbledon / Matthew Walton / 17 October 2008 / Leave a comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton takes Nadal's match against Ernest Gulbis earlier on in the week as a case study for how you can place two bets on one match and cover most of the options in order to ensure a profit.

For many backers, betting is purely about single win bets. They might throw in the odd each-way flutter at a big price and the occasional, speculative double or treble - if they fancy taking a punt - but, by and large, it's this preference for the straightforward approach which is most commonly found amongst the betting fraternity.

And, one has to say, this is very often the best way to achieve success. A simple strategy which eliminates the many and various complicated, convoluted or 'over fancy' bets which conventional bookmakers try to tempt us with (which are, more often than not, for the bookmaker's own benefit and not those of the backer!).

However, there is still the place within this method of simplicity for a little bit of creativity and lateral thinking in order to make money. And none of us are averse to that, are we?

Such a strategy was illustrated in this week's matches at the Masters Series event in Madrid where, with a modicum of imagination, the shrewd backer could have turned a potentially lost cause into a winning bet ...

What we're going to do is cross-reference two Betfair markets in order to provide ourselves with a strong position and a very high chance of success, whichever player wins the match.

The two markets in question are those which concern the outright winner and the set betting.

The logic behind this particular bet comes from the fact these matches are all best of three sets. As such, there are only four possible alternatives on the set betting market, 2-0 and 2-1 to Player A and 2-0 and 2-1 to Player B. Combine this fact with the simple 50-50 choice of Player A or Player B in the outright winner market and we're ready to start betting!

So, here's the deal. We've gone to Madrid to see Rafael Nadal playing Ernests Gulbis in Round 2. They've played before, at Wimbledon a few months ago, and on that occasion the Latvian made the world No.1 (then still No.2) work hard for a four set win. What's more, Gulbis also had the benefit of a pipe-opener here in R1 when he defeated Nicolas Kiefer and his recent form on tour was also mildly encouraging.

As for Nadal, he's obviously in great form but we've not seen him on a hard court since the US Open and his indoor (and hard court) form isn't quite as frightening as his outdoor clay prowess.

Still, it was no surprise to see the match odds heavily in favour of Nadal. Take the Spaniard at something like [1.13] and his opponent at nearer [8.0].

Then you consider the set betting. Here you'd be looking at Nadal 2-0 [1.45] and 2-1 [5.8] and Gulbis trading at all sorts of fancy prices for either 2-0 or 2-1. We're talking in excess of [12.00].

Going back to our opening statement. Many punters will do one of three things at this point.

1. They will either consider the value of backing Nadal in the outright winner market at a short price - after all, he's pretty much guaranteed to win.

2. If that seems too skinny then they might just look at the set betting. Maybe take a punt on the 2-0 scoreline. Again, Nadal is playing well and, when all is said and done, a much better player than Gulbis at present.

3. Walk away. Backing Gulbis probably isn't really an option. After the year which Nadal has had, his record in the Slams and Masters Series, the fact he's playing in front of his own fans - might be a little much to expect him to bomb out in his first match.

No, what you could have done is quite simple. You back two options. Nadal to win the match 2-1 in the set betting market and you combine that with Gulbis to win the match in the outright winner market.

The only way in which the bet can lose is if Nadal wins 2-0 and if Gulbis should take a set (or even win the match) then you're on a decent winner.

At the odds of [5.8] for a 2-1 Nadal win and [8.0] for a Gulbis outright win the payout would be at the decent price of [3.5]. This would be done, if one were to roughly balance the payout on whatever result occurred, by placing 60% of your stake on Nadal and 40% on Gulbis.

Nadal wins the match but with this bet you get paid out at [3.5] rather than the [1.13] for the straight outright match win. Gulbis loses but you get paid out at [3.5] as opposed to losing your stake.

So you see the logic behind the bet, the prices on offer and the way in which the situation can be exploited.

A much more profitable bet than backing Nadal simply to win, a more logical bet than just assuming the Spaniard will hit top form first time out and a more flexible bet as you've got two different outcomes running for you.

Another variation would have been to concentrate purely on the set betting and possibly back both Nadal to win 2-1 and Gulbis to win 2-1. But here you've only covered two of the four options whereas the example we've used covers three out of the four (Nadal 2-1, Gulbis 2-1 and Gulbis 2-0).

And when you look at other matches in Madrid - games like Djokovic vs. Hanescu and Tsonga vs. Granollers - you can see that such a strategy isn't a one off. Many's the time apparent mismatches provide three setters which allow for this kind of approach to work.

Yes, this method could be applied for the Slams (i.e. five set matches) but it starts to lose its edge as more options come into play.

Overall, the purpose of this illustration is to show that betting can still be simple even if more than one bet, or a combination of bets, is used. You can still end up with one result ... and that's a profit. It just takes one small sideways step to create a nice little angle and a way of making the Betfair markets work a little better for you.