The Women's draw part two - Ratings say Ivanovic and Venus

Women's Draw / Gary Boswell / 19 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

In part two Gary Boswell looks at the top 8 in the betting in the women's draw and asseses their qualities across eight disciplines. His ratings suggest Safina aand Kuznetsova can be discounted whilst Venus and Ivanovic are the players to be "green" on

In part one of my look at the women's draw, I explained how my rankings systems works. Here's a refresher of how I went about it.

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At least four of the top eight are confident BOZ Lays. My doubts about Svetlana Kuznetsova were amply illustrated at the recent French Open when, true to form, she failed to turn up for her semi-final against Dinara Safina. We've seen it so many times and whilst she is always a more dangerous proposition for me on grass and has obviously won a grand slam, the current mood in the Kuznetsova camp gives her a low score on the BOZometer. Even a five couldn't overcome the fact that she scores top notch in none of the categories and a resounding bottom of the class in the category of reliable mental resilience.

Dinara Safina can't win Wimbledon as she simply doesn't have the class on grass. Her game is totally clay oriented and she will be passed easily at SW11. I predict an early exit for the Russian.

The other two confident lays are the lights of former years, Serena and Lindsey Davenport. Both are carrying injury worries and Serena's overall profile points clearly to 2001 and 2002, when she was world number one, as her Wimbledon years. She top scores in the forehand and mental resilience categories but her 2008 injuries combined with her age would point me clearly away from her. The prices for the two sisters are incredible really when you look at the fact that one was born for the grass game and has won Wimbledon four times and yet is considered the outsider!

Sharapova and Jelena Jankovic are harder to dismiss but the injury category is crucial for me with both of them. Sharapova's game relies so much on a 100% first serve which is definitely undermined by the current uncertainty about her shoulder. She might win but I'd want at least [7.0] in the current climate. Jankovic relies on the power backhand on grass and the forearm injury seriously threatens that. She is also clearly superseded in class by her Serbian counterpart and doesn't look natural for grass play.

So it's Venus versus Ana in the final for me if the draw falls that way - but only in terms of the top eight. I actually have a strong sense of an emerging new order in women's tennis. The new young brigade contains several potential number ones of the future. The German teenager Sabine Lisicki tops the list with Ayumi Morita and Tsvetana Pironkova not far behind and with last year's Wimbledon surprise package Michaella Krajicek also coming into the tournament with a new found form following six months with wrist injury.

I'm prepared to predict a fairly open tournament. Laying six of the top eight in the betting gives good potential for a profitable portfolio approach.