The Women's Draw Part One: The ratings system explained

Women's Draw / Gary Boswell / 19 June 2008 / 1 Comments

In part one of his analysis of the women's draw, Gary Boswell looks at the top 8 in the betting in the women's draw and asseses their qualities across eight disciplines. These are the eight...

Betfair invited me to do a ratings chart on the top eight in the outright betting for the upcoming Wimbledon Ladies Singles to include sections on serve, speed, stamina, forehand and backhand strength as well as a separate category for winning mental capacity.

The idea is to identify which of the favourites to back and which to lay and hopefully the chart below makes it fairly clear!

I've rated all sections on a 1 to 5 basis and I've added in two extra categories which I consider to be a major influence in my ability to read women's tennis markets accurately. The carrying of injuries is a factor for all sportsmen and women of course, but I consider it a major factor in women's tennis. One is reminded of Serena Williams hobbling through last year's Wimbledon with what turned out to be a severe calf strain and Maria Sharapova never being able to win when the serving shoulder isn't clicking.

There is a degree of guesswork in assessing the injury status of some players as some often cover-up their actual conditions and it takes a keen eye to spot tennis elbow and the idiosyncratic injuries that affect each player's winning capacity. It's a must inclusion for me though in assessing a market before an event and I consider the question marks about Serena, Sharapova and Jelena Jankovic's current fitness coming into Wimbledon to be a massive factor in assessing their overall chance of prevailing.

The other extra category is the mystical BOZ rating that comes from years of watching the game and the world in general. You'll perhaps not be surprised to see that I consider this year's Wimbledon a straight fight between the reigning queen, Venus Williams, whose four titles and supreme grass court game make her an obvious choice despite her age - and the new pretender and winner at Roland Garros, Ana Ivanovic.

There remains a slight question mark about Ivanovic on grass and she is only a middle ranker in the categories of serve and stamina. There's no doubt though that she is the future of the game and reminds me of Chris Evert, rest assured this Serbian looks primed to conquer the surface in time. Her semi-final last year was an indication of her capability on the surface and she has ratcheted up a few notches this year. I'll be surprised if she doesn't at least replicate last year's effort.

Comments (1)

1. Pro betting | 08 July 2008

   Hey, I like the way in which you have represented various aspects in the form of a table by looking at which we can get an overall idea about the top most players.