Wimbledon Day Three Tips: Del Potro can slip up

Wimbledon Betting / Sean Calvert / 22 June 2011 / 3

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Del Potro takes a tumble on the slippery Wimbledon lawn but is a shock slip-up on the cards against the canny Olivier Rochus?

"It’s certainly a long shot at around [9.2], but as a back-to-lay bet it offers excellent trading opportunities and we’ve got every chance of securing a green book at some stage, especially when we consider Delpo has it all to prove on grass."

Juan Martin Del Potro is several notches above today's opponent Olivier Rochus in more ways than one. But the little Belgian loves a big upset and on the Argentine's least favoured surface, he has a chance of defying the odds, says Sean Calvert.

Day Two at Wimbledon 2011 turned out fine as far as the weather was concerned, but pretty much a washout as far as my bets were concerned.

I've given up trying to predict when it's going to rain in this country and am sticking to the tennis, in which I have a potential huge priced upset to recommend today.

Juan Martin Del Potro hates the grass-court season and has struggled on the green stuff throughout his career and this season so far.

The big Argentine dislikes the variable bounce and slippy court surface on grass and particularly at Wimbledon, where he's never been past the second round.

Delpo's straight sets defeat at Queen's to Adrian Mannarino (who went on to lose to James Ward) wouldn't have come as much of a surprise to anyone who's witnessed the Argentine slipping around like a drunkard at the back of a grass-court and he could have further problems today.

He plays the vertically challenged, but awkward Belgian, Olivier Rochus, who's conceding a foot in height to the 6'6" Del Potro. But Rochus knows his way around a grass-court and though he doesn't necessarily have the typical physique of a grass-court player, he has the experience and expertise.

Rochus is no Roger Federer granted, but he's not to be underestimated on this surface as Novak Djokovic found out last year when he was made to go the full distance against the Belgian.

The 30-year-old loves a big stage and an upset, as he has proved on 13 occasions in his career by beating top-10 players and he beat Del Potro in their only career meeting so far, which makes the [1.11] on Delpo a shocking price.

Rochus warmed up for this tournament by beating Lleyton Hewitt at Eastbourne before losing to eventual champion, Andreas Seppi in three tight sets.

It's certainly a long shot at around [9.2], but as a back-to-lay bet it offers excellent trading opportunities and we've got every chance of securing a green book at some stage, especially when we consider Delpo has it all to prove on grass.

Of the women's second round matches today, the one I like the look of for a spot of value has to be Petra Martic to beat last year's surprise semi finalist Tsvetana Pironkova, at a handy price of [2.68].

Pironkova has had a shocking year, culminating in five first round losses from her last six events and her only win on the WTA Tour since February prior to Wimbledon was against world number 303, Casey Dellacqua at Roland Garros.

I watched her against Serena Williams in Eastbourne and her forehand is non-existent at the moment - she doesn't appear to be able to hit it all and Martic should be good enough to exploit it.

As far as banker bets for Betfair Multiples are concerned, I like Tomas Berdych [1.15], Stan Wawrinka [1.18], and Milos Raonic at [1.4].

Recommended bets

Back-to-lay Rochus v Del Potro at [9.2]
Back Martic to beat Pironkova at [2.68]
Back Berdych, Wawrinka and Raonic in a Betfair Multiple @ 1.76

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Tom Welsh | 22 June 2011

Del Potro has made it very clear in recent interviews that he likes playing on grass and will make a big effort to improve his grass-court game. If he "hated" grass, he could easily avoid playing on it! He wouldn't lose many points by ignoring Wimbledon and getting ready for the US hard-court swing instead.

As for his record of never getting past the second round at Wimbledon, many lazy journalists and bloggers have taken to parroting that. In fact, he lost to Federer in 2007, to Wawrinka (then the world #9) in 2008, and to Hewitt in 2009. Although ranked only #56 at the time, Hewitt was an ex-champion who was to defeat Federer on grass in 2010. At Wimbledon 2009, after defeating Del Potro, Hewitt got to the quarter-finals where he lost narrowly to Roddick in five sets. Roddick then brushed aside Murray and gave Federer the match of his life in a five-set final.
Sean | 22 June 2011

He's hardly going to say in pre-Wimbledon interviews that he hates grass is he? I take it you didn't see him throwing his shoes into Row Z in disgust after slipping and sliding his way to losing the first set then?
Fact is that Rochus was 13.0 at the start and is now 3.5 which makes for a successful trade as per the recommendation.
Luke Kilner | 23 June 2011

I put a lazy $20 on him at $8.50, I wish play didnt get suspended cause this will favour Del Potro (Rochus losing his momentum). Fingers crossed Rochus can take him on and keep his 80% success rate up at the net....and come away with the win!!