Wimbledon Betting / Jack Houghton / 02 July 2011 /

Despite how tight the match looks on paper, there is still huge value to be had in Sunday's final, says Jack Houghton.

There's a startling statistical similarity behind the routes taken to Sunday's Wimbledon final by Djokovic and Nadal.

Both have played 21 sets. Nadal has played 677 points in total; Djokovic 678. Both have averaged a first-serve-in rate of around 70 per cent, with both winning around 79 per cent of those points. Both have won about 60 per cent of points on their second serve.

Djokovic has served ten more aces than Nadal, but then Nadal has served nine fewer double faults. Djokovic has won 30 break points; to Nadal's 27. They've both hit around 120 winners when returning first serves. Djokovic has hit 136 winners when returning second serves; Nadal has managed 134.

Yes, these two are so close on the numbers that they virtually share a decimal point. There are other numbers too.

Djokovic supporters will point to his strong head-to-head record against Nadal - he's only down 16 wins to 11, about the best that any of the top players can offer against the Spaniard - and crucially, they'll say, Djokovic seems to have worked out the key to Nadal this year, winning all four times the two have met in 2011.

Nadal supporters will point out that many of those wins have come when their man was below his best, that Djokovic has never beaten Nadal in a five-set match, and that Nadal has far the better record on grass. Finally, they will say, struggling to put away a man ranked 19 in the world in the semi-finals - as Djokovic did - does not speak of a player ready to lift his first Wimbledon final.

On balance, I guess I'm with the Nadal camp. He destroyed Murray yesterday and it's hard to see how Djokovic can sustain a high enough standard long enough to beat him. That sentiment is reflected in their relative odds though, so the best value is likely to be found elsewhere.

Most Aces

Neither are renowned for a blistering first serve - they rarely go much above 125mph - so they don't tend to amass many aces. At these Championships, only around 18 per cent of Djokovic's first serve points won have come via aces, and for Nadal this drops to 14 per cent. Compare this to Tsonga (30 per cent), and it's clear how hard the top two in the world have to work for those points.

Head-to-head, the pair only averages a combined ace total of around seven a match. Djokovic has served more on 15 occasions (60 per cent), to Nadal's six (24 per cent), with four matches ending in a tie. All this tells you that Djokovic should be around the [1.40] mark to serve most aces. At [1.65] then, the Serbian looks value.

Tie Break

Perhaps the lack of a big first serve explains why these two don't play many tie-breaks. In a total of 66 sets, they have only played six tie-breaks. Even assuming they play four or five sets in Sunday's final, that translates to odds of [2.75] that we'll see a tie-break in Sunday's final, and [1.56] that we won't. At around [2.60] then, "No" looks enormous value, and I'll be lumping on.

Set Betting

Despite how closely matched the two appear, they have not historically produced especially competitive matches. Of the 91 sets they've had available to play in their matches, they've only used 66 of them, or 72 per cent. Applying this to Sunday's final, we might expect to see three or four sets, but, perhaps against expectations, are unlikely to see five. As I think Nadal has the edge, I'll be backing him to win 3-0 ([5.2]) and 3-1 ([4.3]).

Recommendations

4pts BACK Djokovic to serve most aces at [1.65].
8pts BACK No in Tie-Break Played market at [2.60].
2pts BACK Nadal to win 3-0 at [5.2].
2pts BACK Nadal to win 3-1 at [4.3].

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