Players Under The Microscope / Simon Mundie / 10 November 2008 / Leave a comment

All the talk so far at the Shanghai Masters Cup is of Federer's defeat to Gilles Simon in the opening round robin match of the Red Group. But here Simon Mundie scratches beneath the surface to question whether Rafal Nadal's absence through "fatigue" is a sign of greater long-term problems for the current world number one.

The Masters Cup, the biggest tournament in the men's tennis calendar after the four Grand Slam events, is under way. This year it's undoubtedly an exciting line-up, with a nice mixture of youth and experience. Of course there's the four-time Champion and world number 2 Roger Federer ([4.4] after an unexpected defeat to Gilles Simon in his opening round robin match); Andy Roddick [42.0], who's making his sixth appearance at the year-ending Championships; man of the moment Andy Murray ([3.3]) who's qualified for the first time and just beaten Roddick,Juan Martin Del Potro ([65.0]) and the Paris Masters Champion Jo Wilfried-Tsonga ([16.0]).

The final two making up the eight man field are the ever-present Nikolay Davydenko ([11.0]), and Gilles Simon who is now just [11.0] after his superb win over the Fed Express and who's taken the place of the World Number 1, Rafael Nadal. Therein lies the problem for this year's event in Shanghai - the year's outstanding performer is not there.

Nadal's season has been phenomenal. Despite being thrashed in the Australian Open semi-finals by Tsonga, he could console himself with progressing further in the year's opening Grand Slam than ever before, thus establishing himself as a genuine hard court Grand Slam contender. He didn't actually win his first title of the year until the Monte Carlo Masters in April, but once he'd got that one under his belt he went on an incredible run over four months that took in a further seven tournament titles including the French open, Wimbledon and the Olympics; a 32 match winning streak and the number one ranking.

Had Murray not stopped him in the US Open semi-finals and he had gone on and beaten Federer in the final, it would have been the single greatest season since Rod Laver won the calendar Grand Slam in 1969. He's proven that he is more than just a great clay-courter; he's a great player full stop.

However, his withdrawal from the Masters Cup is of real concern for his legion of fans who want him to go on and add several more Grand Slam titles to his portfolio. Nadal has cited fatigue as the reason for his withdrawal, but his injury problems have been well documented. Every time Nadal steps on court, his knees are heavily strapped, and there is real concern that wear and tear on them could force the muscular Spaniard to retire early.

Indeed, his uncle Toni, who also doubles up as his coach, has admitted that they will always be troublesome and he has even gone on record saying that it could significantly curtail his career. Furthermore, Nadal's reason for withdrawing from the Shanghai showpiece was contradicted by the Spanish tennis federation's doctor, who said he was actually suffering from tendonitis in his right knee.

Nadal's style of play is very hard on his body, unlike a more rounded player like Federer who has more options at his disposal. The Spaniard wears his opponents down, chasing balls that many players would long have given up for dead, and that clearly has taken its' toll. Over the last couple of seasons, he has looked to be more aggressive, to give him the option of shortening the points, which could well be with one eye on lengthening his career.

The more forgiving surfaces- clay and grass- don't cause him so many physical problems; but hard courts most certainly do. If Nadal's knee problems are more serious than he is letting on, it could be a hammer blow for his bid to hold on to the number one ranking, and that would be great news for Federer in particular. Nadal appears to have a psychological edge over the Swiss, and not just on the clay of Roland Garros. It would be a disaster for the game if their great rivalry was curtailed because of injury to Nadal, just as it was when the world was deprived of the Seles-Graf rivalry after the shocking events of Hamburg in 1993 in which Seles was stabbed by a Graf fan during a match.

However, in terms of this tournament alone, one man's misfortune is another's gain. Gilles Simon has a real opportunity to show what we can expect from him in the years ahead. He's beaten Nadal, Federer and Djokovic during the course of the season, as well as winning three titles, and could grab this opportunity with both hands. He's in a group with Federer, Roddick and Murray and has already done wonders to his chances of progressing to the semis after coming from a set down against Federer (at which point he was matched at odds of [46.0] on Betfair) to win in three . One more win against either Murray or Roddick and he'll be through.

He had already shown he could match the World number two by beating him in the hard courts of Toronto, and could be helped by Andy Murray admitting he's feeling fatigued and isn't expecting to play his best tennis. Federer's defeat, Murray's fatigue and the recent good form of Davydenko all mean it's an incredibly open tournament and we could well see one of the outsiders going all the way. One thing is for sure though, the absence of Nadal is good news for everyone else. The only question is how often we'll see El Matador missing from future events over the next few years as a result of the punishment his young body has already taken.