Wimbledon Men's Draw Betting: Don't believe the Murray hype

Men's Draw / Sean Calvert / 21 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

With Nadal ruled out of Wimbledon, Sean Calvert looks at the draw to try and work out who will still be around at the business end of the tournament.

With the previous year's champion not returning to defend his Wimbledon crown for the first time since Goran Ivanisevic in 2002, the scene is set for one of the most open tournaments of recent times.

Nadal's delicate injury situation sent the outright men's singles market into meltdown, with rumour and counter rumour prior to the world number one's withdrawal, which has now created an interesting draw.

In order to find the potential champion and profitable back-to-lays we must analyse the draw and the best way is to break it down into sections and see who the likely winners of each quarter are.

The first quarter is now headed by Juan Martin Del Potro, which will surely be the first and only time in his career that the Argentine heads the field at a grand slam, although I can't see him capitalising on his fortune by advancing to the last eight.

The Argentine hasn't bothered to enter a grass court event following Roland Garros and his movement is too cumbersome on the lawns for him to be classed as a threat.

Andy Roddick looks to have a fine chance to take advantage and make his fifth Wimbledon quarter final in that opening section despite having a tricky opening match with big serving Frenchman Jeremy Chardy.

The American always finds one too good for him at SW19 these days though and at [32.0] there's not much in the way of value there.

I prefer David Ferrer in that section at a massive [960.0] to sneak his way through, rather than Del Potro, who is yet to beat anyone ranked inside the world's top 100 on grass and who has it all to prove on the surface.

If fit, Radek Stepanek, who many forget came within a deciding set of reaching the semis here in 2006, is not without a chance of causing damage at the maximum price. His fitness needs confirming first, but he could represent huge value.

First quarter conclusion: Back David Ferrer at [960] and Radek Stepanek at [1000]

The adjacent section is the one where most of Britain's attention seems to be focused at the moment and that of course is the second quarter, or the current home of our first Wimbledon champion since Fred Perry - if you believe the hype.

I for one do not believe the hype and I will be laying Murray at the exceptionally low price of around [4.0] initially.

Clearly the Scot has been given a plum draw this year with only the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka and Marat Safin to beat early on and possibly one of Fernando Gonzalez or Gilles Simon to face in the quarters.

Murray played very well on the grass at Queen's, but he didn't have much to beat and I can see him trading higher than his current mark at Wimbledon when he faces a step up in class.

The first test for the world number three could well be a resurgent Taylor Dent in round three if they both get that far, but Murray should reach the quarters, at which point he will be worth laying.

In the best traditions of British tennis, Murray rarely does things the easy way at Slams, often finding himself one or two sets down before launching a comeback and that will be the time to back the Scot.

As for long shots, I'm holding a back of Gonzalez at a whopping [180.0] and he has a chance of reaching the quarters too, with the likes of Nicolas Kiefer and Mikhail Youzhny as the opposition along with Simon, who has no grass form whatsoever.

Second quarter conclusion: Lay Murray after round two and back later. Also back Gonzalez at [180]

Novak Djokovic is the top seed in the third quarter, but with the Serbian not firing at the moment there is an opportunity for someone in this section to make excellent progress and make week two.

Djokovic should be wary of a likely meet with Janko Tipsarevic in round three and I fancy Tipsy to prevail in an all-Serbian clash, particularly if it's played on Centre Court, where showman Tipsarevic will revel in the underdog status.

Also lurking in this part of the draw is the man who beat Djokovic on grass in Halle last week, Tommy Haas, who I backed at [200.0] and who is now around [75.0], which might still represent value for a man on top form just now.

The obvious concern with Haas is his injury record, but with only James Blake and Marin Cilic barring his way to the quarters, take the German to come through.

Third quarter conclusion: Back Tipsarevic at [900] and lay at quarters. Back Haas at [75].

Last and by no means least we have the final quarter and this looks the one to watch with Roger Federer, Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco all gunning for that semi final spot.

Also in this section are French Open sensation Robin Soderling; Croatian serving machine Ivo Karlovic and former two-time quarter finalist Feliciano Lopez.

Federer will fancy his chances of making the most of a very kind draw in the opening three rounds, but he should be worth a lay at around the third or fourth round stage when I expect him to start dropping sets.

The days of the Swiss winning events without losing a set are gone and he will almost certainly trade higher than the current [1.95] at some stage in the next fortnight. And no-one beats Robin Soderling 11 times in a row!

I fancy his quarter final opponent will be Tsonga, who I like to cause some real damage here this year and a back of the Frenchman to take advantage of one of Federer's wobbles looks to be the call.

Karlovic cannot play five set matches and is no threat, while Verdasco has it all to prove after another tame slam exit, this time at Roland Garros.

A fully fit Tsonga is a real threat and I can see him really enjoying himself at SW19 this year if he can steer clear of injury. That [44.0] might just look huge in around 10 days time.

Fourth quarter conclusion: Back Tsonga at [44.0]. Lay Federer at third or fourth round stage and look to back when in trouble.

So, analysis of the draw has thrown up a few long shots along with a couple of lay to backs and some back to lays for what will hopefully be another profitable fortnight at The Championships Wimbledon.