Men's Draw / Jack Houghton / 20 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Fresh from predicting Federer's win for the French Open, Jack Houghton tells us why the same man still represents massive value for Wimbledon, as does recent Halle winner Tommy Haas.

Nadal's announcement Friday that he will not contest this year's Wimbledon Championship - due to tendonitis - will have dulled the tournament's glimmer for some. The reality is though, that Nadal had ceased to be a relevant factor at SW19 a good few weeks back.

On the clay in Madrid, Federer did in the finals what Djokovic had almost done in the semis: beat the (until then) seemingly omnipotent Nadal on his favourite service. For some this was a blip; the result of a punishing timetable and the tournament's high altitude speeding up a normally ultra-slow surface. But there were enough signs of disquiet in the Nadal game for this column to recommend opposing him - with success - at the French Open. And after getting drilled there by Soderling, it was hard to see how he would play anything but a bit-part at Wimbledon.

The downside to Nadal's withdrawal is that Federer is now trading at odds-on. Prior to the French Open he was available at around [3.25]. Afterwards he was trading at around [2.3]. Now he's at a little less juicy at [1.92]. Given my strength of feeling prior to the French Open that here was a player resurgent, I'm not quite sure why I've delayed backing Federer until now. But delay I have and, although now odds-on, I'm not too bothered: Federer still represents massive value and some of the French Open profit has been reinvested in a maximum bet.

It was only three years ago or so that Federer would come into Wimbledon having traded at around [1.5] for weeks before. What, you have to ask yourself, is so different in 2009? Any thought of a decline in Federer's game must now have been banished, and it's not as if the field looks particularly menacing. Murray has come out of Queen's with credit and Haas played well in Halle, but these two aside, it's hard to make a case for anyone else. Roddick is not certain to be fully fit, Djokovic was outplayed on grass in Germany and, well, who else is there?

Murray's progression over the last few seasons has been impressive. He looked massive value at the recommended [30.0] for a win in Paris and, whilst in retrospect I should have traded out when he was a [5.0] shot, it's easy to be wise with hindsight. You have to ask yourself though: how can Murray enter one Grand Slam at [30.0] and the next at [4.0]? Has that much changed about his game in a month?

True, Murray has more experience on grass. True, his game is better suited to grass. True, his performances of late will have boosted his confidence. But these are factors of marginal consequence; not factors that take Murray from having a three per cent chance of winning a Grand Slam to a 25 per cent chance. Murray will do well at Wimbledon this year, but the [4.0] is a price sexed-up by media hype, and he can't be put forward as value.

Those who want an interest in Murray though could do worse than taking the three-odd grand currently available at [1.03] to back him losing a set at some point in the Championship. In reality, it's a virtual impossibility Murray will win Wimbledon without dropping a set and, if you're looking for a home for your Cash ISA allowance this year, three per cent in a fortnight isn't bad, and you'll enjoy similar tax breaks on your return. Be aware though: the value of your investments can go down as well as up.

I'll be concentrating on the winner's market though. And with Federer taking up 90 per cent of my stake, the rest will be evenly spread between Haas at [80.0] and Dimitrov at [870.0]. Although ageing, and seemingly in decline over the last few years, Haas has had a good season of late. He took Federer to five sets in Paris and looked strong when beating both Tsonga and Djokovic on route to a grass title in Halle last week. In my book, Haas should be third-favourite at Wimbledon; it's incredible he's such a big price.

Whilst Haas is nearing the end of a career, 18-year-old Dimitrov is just starting his. And although he was roundly humbled by Gilles Simon at Queen's last week, he clearly has a lot of talent and, at such a big price, is worth a speculative bet. He's due to play Roddick in the second-round and - given Roddick withdrew from Queen's with an ankle injury - it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if the Bulgarian teen progressed deep into the tournament.