Wimbledon Betting: Are you brave enough to bet against a Federer/Nadal final?

Men's Draw / Sean Calvert / 24 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Sean Calvert looks at the stats, the form and the draw and reaches a clear conclusion: it all adds up to a repeat of last year's final between the world number one and two.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have contested an incredible 13 finals between them in the last three seasons and who would bet against another in a couple of weeks time at SW19?

The odds of reward for those investing in a repeat of the last two year's men's singles finals are [2.06] and the stats tell us that the likelihood of the top two players on the planet clashing yet again on July 6 are fairly high.

Nadal's vulnerability on hard courts has meant that the pair have only met in Grand Slam finals at Wimbledon and Roland Garros, but they have contested the championship match in all of the previous five tournaments in SW19 and Paris.

So, what are the chances of it happening again? Well, pretty likely by the looks of things.

Federer kicked off his 2008 campaign with a bloodless straight sets win over Dominic Hrbaty, but he should be stretched further in the second round where he faces the man that almost put paid to Nadal's chances in the round of 32 last year - Robin Soderling.

The Swede, once tipped by his more illustrious countryman, Bjorn Borg, for greatness hasn't lived up to his mentor's billing, but he is more than capable on grass of giving Federer a decent test.

Soderling reached two finals (Memphis and Rotterdam) in February, but has otherwise had an average campaign thus far, but he could be a tough opponent to meet so early in the tournament.

With a 6-0 head-to-head record in his favour, Federer should come through comfortably enough, but the Swiss may not have things all his own way as he did against Hrbaty.

The world number one has a straightforward looking third rounder before most likely having to face a familiar foe in either Lleyton Hewitt or Fernando Gonzalez in the last 16.

By then he should be in the form to take either out comfortably before a quarterfinal clash with either Mario Ancic, Tomas Berdych or David Ferrer and only the Croatian poses a threat there.

As the last man to beat Federer on grass, Ancic has the credentials, but he's never been quite the same player since suffering from glandular fever and injury over the last few years and it's far from certain that he'll make the quarters.

The big test for the Swiss maestro is likely to come in the form of Novak Djokovic in the semis, however Fed will be hoping that the Serb continues to look not quite at home on the grass and of the 'big three', Djokovic looks the most vulnerable on the surface at the moment.

Nadal also has a simple-looking opener in the shape of Andreas Beck, although the German did take out Marc Gicquel and Mischa Zverev on the grass at Halle before losing to James Blake in the quarters, so he can play a bit.

The Spaniard will face a tricky test in the second round, when he takes on either the talented Latvian, Ernests Gulbis, or the huge-serving American, John Isner.

Gulbis finally started to show everyone what he is capable of in Paris and at Queen's, where he stretched Andy Murray, while Isner took a set off Federer at the US Open last year and who knows how far he can go on his Wimbledon debut with his service bombs.

A not too problematic third and fourth round should follow before Nadal's first big test in the quarters in the shape of Andy Murray or Richard Gasquet.

Both are of course frustratingly inconsistent and far from bankers to get that far, but either are capable of beating Nadal on grass on their day and this round should be the key for the French Open champion.

If he emerges successful from it, it should be a semi final against Andy Roddick, who looks the strongest of a weak third quarter of the draw and Nadal proved at Queen's that he has the American's measure on grass now, so who would be brave enough to bet against Federer v Nadal (Part 18) a week on Sunday?