Wimbledon Betting: The days of "clay-courters" not being able to win at Wimbledon are over

Men's Draw / Matthew Walton / 20 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

You can always count on "Magical" Matthew Walton to crunch some numbers ahead of a big tennis tournament. This time the stats tell him that these days the top players can win on both.

iiii There is a popularly held view that players adept on clay are no good on grass.

To be perfectly honest, there's also a view that players who are adept on hard courts are no good on grass either! Such is the peculiar nature of this surface, there are so few players who like to play on it and who can play on it.

Accordingly we will see any number of sweeping generalisations made by pundits, backers and commentators over the coming fortnight at Wimbledon. You know the tone - 'these lovers of clay can't handle the lush, slippery, uneven and lightning fast conditions at SW19'. All said with a slightly patronising tone in their voice.

We here love these kind of statements. We thrive on such misconceptions which sway the masses one way whilst we, the more discerning backers, move in the other direction.

Anybody remember Bjorn Borg? He managed to win the French Open-Wimbledon double three years running in 1978, 1979 and 1980. He made the change from one surface to another.

For sure, using one of the game's greats is maybe an unfair example but it can happen. What's more, changes in court speeds, playing styles and racquet technology has undoubtedly made grass court tennis a more inclusive form of the game in recent years.

So can a clay-courter have real aspirations of lifting the title at SW19? We took a look at the statistics.

For this we've taken a look at the winners of all this year's events on clay. This gives us a list of ten different players, a cross-section of clay-court talent, from which to draw some conclusions about the coming action at Wimbledon.

The likes of Nicolas Almagro and Marcel Granollers initially catch the eye. These are the guys who represent the stereotypical clay-courter of yesteryear. They play almost exclusively on clay. They do so on hard courts because that's where the money and ranking points come from but they only turn up at Wimbledon for a week's holiday in the capital and then get out of town as quickly as they came. To the list we may well add a few others such as Juan Monaco, Filippo Volandri and Jose Acasuso. Even Nikolay Davydenko comes into this group but he maybe isn't classed as an out-and-out clay courter. Can these guys win? No.

Then we have the developing talents. Guys who could go either way in their careers. Typified by the likes of David Ferrer and Gilles Simon. Players who you think could do something on grass if they really applied themselves. There's others too such as Tommy Robredo, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Ignacio Chela and Feliciano Lopez. All capable of crossing the great divide. Can they win? Well, maybe not at Wimbledon but somewhere on grass.

Next we have the proven performers which include David Nalbandian and Fernando Gonzalez. Both have shown enough on grass to suggest they can compete at the highest level. Guys like Tomas Berdych and Mikhail Youzhny spring to mind here as well but whether they could classed as clay-courters is arguable. Can they win? Well, Nalbandian nearly did in 2002, so it has to be a Yes.

Finally we have the 'Holy Trinity'. It's Federer, Nadal and Djokovic - the clear market leaders for Wimbledon. All have won on clay this year (and in previous years) with both Federer and Nadal winning on grass this year. As for Djokovic, well he's certainly knocking on the door. Can they win? Take a wild guess!

Federer is an all-round talent and so of less interest in terms of this piece but in Nadal and Djokovic we see players who aren't natural grass court performers adapting their game and improving their records on the surface. And it certainly can be done.

As we can see from the table, of those ten different clay court winners in 2008 you'd have to say that 5 or 6 are capable, or more than capable, on grass.

We can also throw into the mix other players who have won on clay in previous years and can win on grass. What about Richard Gasquet, Andy Roddick and even Ivo Karlovic? All these guys have career wins on both clay and grass. They may not have done it back-to-back but they have won titles on both surfaces which is no mean achievement.

All of a sudden this popularly held view about these two types of players (fast court/slow court) is beginning to look outdated. Times have changed and players have become more versatile.

Furthermore, as we hinted at earlier, the change in playing styles has helped clay-courters. More and more players now sit back on the baseline, even on hard courts. The art of 'serve-volleying' is dying out and this must help the clay players. They would surely back themselves to out-rally a fellow baseliner than have to thread winners past a big guy at the net.

So to return to our initial question - can a clay-courter win at Wimbledon? The answer has to be Yes. Such players can perform well enough on grass, as we've seen in the table above, and do possess the all-round talents to match other more grass-orientated players.

Bascially, the model of players being one thing or another is fast becoming obsolete. Guys may well start out as clay or hard court players but over time they develop their game to other surfaces. They have to because that's where money, ranking points and Grand Slam titles are to be found.

Can a clay-courter win at Wimbledon? Yes. Will a clay-courter win at Wimbledon this year? Quite possibly.