Shanghai Masters Tennis: Why it's worth laying vulnerable Federer against bright, young Brit

Men's Draw / Ralph Ellis / 13 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Andy Murray is already through to the semi-finals but with the chance to send his biggest rival for the title packing tomorrow will he go all out for the win or swtich on the cruise control?

If Andy Murray has made one major leap forward this year then it's in his attitude. A young man who could be brilliant one day and hopeless the next has suddenly found consistent form. Instead of tiring and moaning about imagined injuries in a match that goes beyond two hours he's revelling in his new found fitness. He's sharp in body and brain.

But now comes the next big test of whether he's really found the ruthless, win-at-all-costs streak needed to be a genuine champion. He plays Roger Federer tomorrow morning in the Shanghai Masters Cup knowing he's already guaranteed a place in the semi-final, but with the chance to send the former world number one packing. Has he got the nasty edge to raise his game for a match that could get rid in one go of the single big danger to winning the crown outright? Or will his old habits come back? Will he switch on the cruise control and let Federer get a foothold.

Betfair's fairly cynical punters are expecting the latter. The Swiss star who has dominated the tennis world for so long is [1.8] favourite to win the match. Yet Murray is 3-2 up in their head to head record so far, and will never get a better opportunity for his fourth win.

For a start, don't be fooled by Federer's straight sets victory over Radek Stepanek yesterday. The Czech was only playing as a late substitute for Andy Roddick who turned an ankle in practice. And he only got the gig because he happened to be nearby, enjoying a beach holiday in Thailand, after first reserve Gilles Simon had taken over from Rafael Nadal.

Stepanek ordered all his gear, plus his contact lenses, to be shipped from Europe but it was still in customs when he was told he was playing barely two hours before he had to step on court! He borrowed Murray's socks and a racket from Novak Djokovic, and still took Federer to a tie-break in the first set before losing the second 6-4.

Federer has been increasingly vulnerable all season. Yet he's still [3.7] second favourite to win the Masters Cup and that has to be worth laying. As if his lack of consistent form wasn't enough of a problem, he also spent most of Tuesday in bed with a virus that struck him late on Monday night. Surely an out of touch Federer can't win a tournament if he's struggling for breath?

So that comes back to the question of whether Murray has got the killer instinct to finish him off tomorrow morning rather than need to do it again in a final. "It will be the first time I've played him when I've not been under pressure," admits the bright young Brit in this morning's papers. "Maybe I'll feel too relaxed and not play my best now I've qualified. I don't know. But I plan on trying to win because if I do I pretty much knock him out. I'd rather not have to play him twice in one week."

It's an acid test for Murray and one he could well be ready to pass. Back him to win at [2.22], or if you fancy a bolder gamble go for a 2-1 sets victory at [4.9].

Five things you might not know about the Masters Cup

1. It began as long ago as 1970 as The Masters, organised by the ITF as a showpiece end of season event, but didn't count for ranking points. Stan Smith won the first one

2. That changed in 1990 when the ATP took it over and gave it ranking points - only for the ITF to start another Grand Slam Cup as a rival event

3. The two got brought together in 1999 to create the current format in which the top eight players compete - unless somebody outside those rankings has won a Grand Slam in which case the man at number eight missed out to make way

4. It's unusual in starting with a round robin group format. Only three players - Michael Stich, Lleyton Hewitt and Roger Federer - have ever won the title without first losing a group game

5. Ivan Lendl won it five times, but appeared in every final for nine years from 1980 to 1988