Wimbledon Betting Tips Day Three: Cilic to serve up a win

Match Previews / Ben Caudell / 24 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ben Caudell looks ahead to the action on day three where Cilic should emerge the victor in the battle of the big servers against Sam Querrey and yet another in-form young Russian looks a good price to win her match.

Sam Querrey (USA) v Marin Cilic (CRO) - This will be a match purely about the serve, so expect a couple of tie-breaks and very few ground stroke rallies to get excited about. Both players came through their respective first round matches with relative ease, Querrey defeating lucky loser Danai Udomchoke 6-3 6-4 6-4 and Marin Cilic dispatching of Alberto Martin with an identical scoreline.

These two have never met before on the ATP circuit but have played one another twice at Junior Slams; both matches went the distance, Cilic winning in 2005 at the Wimbledon Junior Championships and Querrey in 2004 at the US Open Junior event.

The underlying factor for me in this match is that Marin Cilic is far more at home on the Grass. If these two were to play on a hard court or clay court, the price would be far closer than today's odds suggest. Cilic is 20-10 compared with Querrey 8-10 on the surface; Cilic reached the last 16 of Wimbledon in 2008 and Querrey has never been past the second round.

As flagged up above, this match will be decided on the serve. If Cilic serves to the same percentages as he did against Alberto Martin, winning 75% of first serves and 69% second serves he will prove to be a very tough nut to crack. Plus, if the Croatian capitalises on Querrey's faltering second serve (he won only 29% of second serves v Danai Udomchoke) the advantage will lie with Cilic even more.

Selection: Back Marin Cilic @ 1.5 to win match
Back tie-break? @ Approx 1.65

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) v Roberta Vinci (ITA) - 17 year-old Russian Anastasia Pavlychenkova burst onto the scene at last year's Championships winning five consecutive matches (three qualifying) on her way to defeating established WTA tour players Na Li and Alize Cornet. Her junior career includes the 2006, 2007 Australian Open title and US Open title in 2006. She defeated Petra Cetkovska in convincing fashion 6-2 6-2 winning 84% of her fist serves and has a 1-0 head-to-head series lead over Roberta Vinci. Pavlyuchenkova has a 7-3 record on grass and Vinci is 4-6.

This match is a tough one to call, but the younger and more confident of the two, Pavlychenkova, is having a magnificent year rising to a career high of 27 in the world and should prevail in a match I expect to go the distance.

Selection: Back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ [1.7] to win match
Back Pavlyuchenkova 2-1 @ [5.1]

Ben Caudell says - Back Pavlyuchenkova 2-1 against Vinci @ [5.1] in the Women's Draw