US Open Tips: Super Saturday special

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 10 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Djokovic can overcome Federer

"Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer is probably the most eagerly awaited match of the tournament..."

It's Super Saturday at Flushing Meadows and Sean Calvery is hoping for another splendid day of betting. If ony the USTA could get their act together...

Before the start of the 2011 US Open, I tipped Rafa Nadal to overcome his awful hard-court swing and play his way into form and contention to retain his title.

I'm delighted to say he's started to do that at the right time and after embarrassing the hapless Andy Roddick yesterday, my selection is now [3.6] to double up in New York.

The bad news is that Andy Murray's "temporary blip", as described by Greg Rusedski, against John Isner cost me a straight sets win bet yesterday.

Hopefully, many were able to bail out when the odds on 3-0 went down to [1.13], as Murray strolled through the opening two sets as if it were a Sunday afternoon friendly at the local club, before losing the plot and, in the end, he was slightly fortunate to sneak through in four.

'Super Saturday' at the US Open is a little different this year and it sees another catastrophic effort in the name of scheduling by the USTA, who have put Sam Stosur and Angelique Kerber's semi-final match on Grandstand. That's right, Grandstand!

Whoever wins that one will be in the women's singles final without having played on Ashe all tournament - another triumph. I said the other day that it could still get worse for the USTA and it has.

Anyway, before all of that is probably the most eagerly awaited clash of the tournament, as Novak Djokovic takes on Roger Federer in the opening match on Ashe at 17.00 UK time.

Federer has been classy so far in this tournament, but thrashing the likes of Juan Monaco and an injured-looking Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won't have prepared him for the machine that is Djokovic.

Nole's game has improved out of sight since they met here last year and his confidence is unwavering to go with endless energy and just trading with him for two sets brought Janko Tipsarevic to his knees in the quarters.

Yes, that is the king-in-waiting of quitters, Tipsarevic, but I don't see how Federer out of nowhere, at the age of 30, is going to find answers to the Djokovic game that have eluded him this year in all bar that clay meeting at Roland Garros.

I think Djokovic will win this 3-1, but the bet is on the handicap, backing Nole -3.5 games at [1.95].

The Serb has prevailed by that margin or more in their last three hard-court meetings and two of those were best of three set matches, so that mark looks generous to me.

My other bet today will be a Betfair Multiple that looks a banker, which is Serena Williams to dispose of fake number one seed Caroline Wozniakci and Nadal to take care of Murray.

Serena has too much game for a defensive pusher like Wozniacki - the female Gilles Simon - and all things being equal (and by that I mean no rain or crumbling courts) she will power her way past the Dane and prove, if it needed proving, that Caro's ranking is absurd.

Nadal's brisk outing against Roddick will leave him fresh to face Murray, who never beats a non-injured or non-fatigued Rafa and the same will happen again today.

Murray's good, but not good enough and I see the Spaniard easing past the Scot, who himself will be tired after carelessly ruining my bet yesterday and going long and I foresee a 3-0 or 3-1 Rafa win.

The value today has to lie in the other semi-final and the fact that this is on Grandstand gives shock contender Kerber a squeak against Stosur.

The Aussie has lost to left handers twice in Slams this year (to Kvitova in Melbourne and Czink at Wimbledon) and having never played Kerber before, this awkward leftie could easily sneak a set if she doesn't choke.

This is Stosur's first time in a Slam hard-court semi final and with everyone expecting her to win easily, all the pressure will be on her. Try a lay of Stosur in straights at [1.6].

Recommended Bets
Back Djokovic -3.5 games v Federer at [1.95]
Back Williams [1.28] and Nadal [1.45] in a Betfair Multiple
Lay Stosur 2-0 v Kerber at [1.6]

Running total of US Open bets so far + £58.00 (£10 stake/liability)
Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1