US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 11 September 2011 /

The Betfair markets aren't giving Samantha Stosur much chance of defeating Serena Williams in the women's US Open Final and neither is Sean Calvert. Our man points to some telling historical precedents and selects the best bets.

US Open Super Saturday certainly turned out be so for this column, with all three of my recommended bets winning.

The first bet was admittedly somewhat 'lucky' to borrow Roger Federer's sour grapes phrase after Novak Djokovic belted an insane winner past him at two match points down, but the fact is that the Swiss's bottle isn't what it was and we've had some shocking luck this week, so it was well deserved.

Even at two sets ahead Federer was around [1.31] and he looked seriously shaky in the next two sets before leading 5-3 in the fifth at which point Nole went to work and Fed faltered.

So, the Serb won our -3.5 games handicap bet before Angelique Kerber grabbed a set from Sam Stosur on Grandstand. Rafa Nadal then beat Andy Murray and Serena Williams eased past Caroline Wozniacki to bring our Betfair Multiple in as well.

I even said that Rafa would take his match 3-1, which he did after a blip against the Scot who only started to play once he knew he had lost - further evidence if any were needed that he doesn't have the mentality required at the very top.

So, the women's final will take place on Ashe at around 21:00 UK time tonight and immediately Stosur is at a disadvantage having not played on Ashe at all this tournament.

As if it wasn't tough enough to beat Williams anyway, she now has to do it with no prior match experience of the stadium in her first hard-court Slam final.

Williams was clinical in taking the limited pusher Wozniacki (the world number one apparently) out in straight sets and the Aussie will need to serve off the charts to get close tonight.

Serena can win this match in a variety of ways and it looks a good bet that this will be another women's singles final that is finished in two sets. Not since 1995 has the women's final gone to a decider and this one is unlikely to buck that trend.

The head-to-head between these two stands at 4-2 in completed matches and in their last and most relevant meeting, Williams won 6-4, 6-2 in Toronto on hard last month.

Coincidentally, on the last two occasions that Serena has been in the US Open final (in 2008 and 2009) the score has been the same, 6-4, 7-5. She won one and lost the other.

Back the American in straight sets again today at [1.51]

Recommended Bet
Back Williams to beat Stosur 2-0 at [1.51]

Running total of US Open bets so far + £92.06

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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