US Open Tips: Pav's got weapons to take out Schiavone

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 05 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Pavlyuchenkova impressed Sean when she beat Jelena Jankovic

"The best investment is Nastia Pavlyuchenko to take out Francesca Schiavone at [1.75]."

New York is a place where dreams are made, according to the song. After yesterday's results, Sean Calvert might disagree, so can our man bounce back on Monday?

Well, Sunday was a near total blow-out in New York, with both of my recommended bets losing comfortably, which was a disappointing end to a good first week at the 2011 US Open.

The only crumb of comfort was Gilles Simon's win over Juan Martin Del Potro at a good price but, at the start of week two, I may have found a few interesting propositions.

There's little in the way of clear value around in the women's fourth round matches today, with Serena Williams unbackable at [1.09] against Ana Ivanovic and Andrea Petkovic similarly too short against Suarez Navarro.

I'd be inclined to take Caroline Wozniacki on against Sveta Kuznetsova, but I don't trust the Russian not to put in a shocking effort, so the best investment is Nastia Pavlyuchenko to take out Francesca Schiavone at [1.75].

A-Pavs was in fine form against Jelena Jankovic the other day, despite an alarming tendency to chuck in double faults like they are going out of fashion and she has the weapons to defeat another defensive-minded player in Schiavone.

The Italian has owned this match-up so far, largely due to the changes of pace she uses and leads 3-1, including an easy win here last year, but A-Pavs has improved a lot in the last 12 months and the Italian's record in hard-court tournaments is far from great.

She's never won an outdoor hard-court title and hasn't reached a final since Osaka in 2009 and this is around her time to exit this particular hard-court tournament after struggling in the first and third rounds this year.

Surely A-Pavs has figured out Schiavone by now and I take the Russian to progress to the quarters, where the reward will probably be Serena Williams.

On the men's side, I'm tempted to take Juan Monaco +9.5 games on the handicap against Roger Federer at [2.1], but don't fancy staying up until the small hours to watch what will be a very dull encounter, so I'll stick with the earlier matches.

A higher risk/reward bet lies in the Janko Tipsarevic v Juan Carlos Ferrero clash, which surely will be a long one and the two wagers in this are over 38.5 games at around [2] and Tipsy to take it in five at [7.2].

These two have met twice in the past, with the Mosquito winning both, but they were tight and Tipsy has improved a lot in the four years since their last match.

Both players should be nicely rested after aborted third round matches due to retirements, so they'll have enough in the tank hopefully to get involved in a real slug-fest, which the Serb with his 13-6 career five set record and better recent form should edge.

Recommended Bets
Back Pavlyuchenkova at [1.75] to beat Schiavone
Back Tipsarevic to beat Ferrero 3-2 at [7.2]
Back over 38.5 games in Tipsarevic v Ferrero at [2]