US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 29 August 2010 /

Sean Calvert selects a quintet of players who could spring a surprise on shorter priced opponents at Flushing Meadows

Dmitry Tursunov [4.2] v Jurgen Melzer [1.33]

Tursunov has slipped to number 482 in the world after a nightmare time with an ankle injury over the past year or so, but he's a top-20 player on ability and the Russian looks to have overcome that injury now.

Despite his ranking, Tursunov showed good form in his last event on the hard-courts of Washington, where he beat Teimuraz Gabashvili and narrowly lost to Tomas Berdych and a repeat of that would be enough to worry Melzer.

The Russian has won both previous matches against the Austrian, who has been in poor form on hard this summer, losing to Peter Polansky in Toronto when a [1.1] shot, so this big-hitting affair might be closer than the prices suggest.


Olivier Rochus [3.0] v Janko Tipsarevic [1.45]

Olivier Rochus in the first round of a Slam is not a great draw for most players and particularly so for Janko Tipsarevic, who has lost four of his six meetings with 'The Mighty Atom'.

Short on height he may be, but the Belgian can hit and he tends to save his best for the Slams these days as Novak Djokovic discovered at Wimbledon this year, when he had to come from 2-1 down to win in five.

Tipsy loves the big stage, but the Big Apple has been too much for him so far, as he has lost in the first round in five of his six appearances and that one win was against world number 264 Ryan Sweeting, so his record here is really poor.

Expect Rochus to give you a good run for your money at a handy [3.0].


Fabio Fognini [6.8] v Fernando Verdasco [1.16]

Fernando Verdasco is not a short price favourite to trust these days.
He was [1.04] to beat Fognini at Wimbledon this year and failed to do so and despite having a clear advantage in ability I can see the Spaniard struggling again here.

Verdy has only won three matches on hard-courts this summer and his wins have been against the likes of Eduardo Schwank, Michael Berrer (and he was match points down in that one) and Ryan Sweeting. His form is poor.

Fognini is never likely to do much on hard-courts, but he has won more matches on the surface than Verdasco this summer and he will be buoyed by that Wimbledon win, so he's no forlorn hope at a juicy [6.8].


Tim Smyczek [3.5] v Thomaz Bellucci [1.39]

This one is a bit left field, but I have a feeling that Bellucci will struggle against American Smyczek.

The diminutive 22-year-old from Wisconsin is playing his first US Open and if he handles the occasion, his opponent is there for the taking.

Bellucci has won just one of his four hard-court matches this summer and the one was a struggle against Benjamin Becker, while his last event on clay in Gstaad ended in embarrassment when the defending champ lost in the first round to Marco Chiudinelli.

Smyczek meanwhile plays almost all of his matches on this type of court and played excellently in LA, where he beat Arnaud Clement, Kei Nishikori and Teimuraz Gabashvili before taking a set off Andy Murray in defeat, so he has a chance at [3.5]


Dudi Sela [2.16] v Xavier Malisse [1.84]

The odds suggest that this will be a tight match and I'm going to go with the slight underdog, Dudi Sela in this one.

The Israeli is never one to trust, but his recent win over Malisse on hard in LA and better recent form give Sela the edge over the injury prone Belgian, who retired in his only match in New Haven last week.

Malisse has been poor at Flushing Meadows of late, having won just one match in either qualifying or the main draw in his last three visits and Sela is at least in form, as he showed by winning the Challenger in Vancouver a couple of weeks ago.

The Israeli is worth a small wager at [2.16] with question marks over Malisse's form and fitness.

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