US Open Tips Day Six: Plenty of life in Spanish vet yet

US Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 04 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

Ben reckons Juan can win it tonight

"There is definite value in backing the Spaniard at [1.7] to make it through to the next round."

Ben Caudell believes that a certain Spaniard can overcome a rising Austrian at Flushing Meadows on Saturday night...

Jurgen Melzer (AUT) v Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP)

Spanish veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero faces 2010 French Open semi-finalist Jurgen Melzer for the seventh time in his illustrious career.

Ferrero, a former world number one and 2003 US Open finalist, leads their head-to-head series 4-2, including two outdoor hard courts wins. Not surprisingly, his two losses against Melzer were played in Austria at the Vienna Open on Melzer's favoured indoor hard court surface.

Melzer, who is currently at a career high ranking of 15 in the world, has enjoyed an outstanding year so far and is playing some of his best tennis. He's currently 36-20 for the year on all surfaces and that includes reaching the final of Hamburg, semi final of Dubai, fourth round of Wimbledon and of course that famous French Open semi final appearance.

In the lead-up to Flushing Meadows Melzer lost in the first round of Toronto to Peter Polanski in straight sets, the second round of Cincinnati to Ernests Gulbis in three, and has since struggled with his hard court form at the US Open with two five set encounters, against Dmitry Tursunov and Richard Berankis in the second round. It is important to note that Melzer has an incredible five set record; he has won five of the last six.

Juan Carlos Ferrero is playing in his first hard court event since his third round defeat to Jo Wilfried Tsonga at the Miami Masters back in March of this year. He be fresher and less fatigued than his opponent, having dispatched of lefthanders Richard Mello and Martin Klizan without dropping a set. The Spaniard is currently 8-2 in all matches, 5-5 on hard and has won four in a row against lefties and four in a row against big servers. All the stats are in favour of a Ferrero win today and I am struggling to find a reason to oppose him; there is definite value in backing the Spaniard at [1.7] to make it through to the next round.

Selection: Back Juan Carlos Ferrero @ 1.7 to win match
Back Ferrero -2.5 Games @1.9 (best bet)