US Open Betting: How will Federer cope with being the underdog?

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 22 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

Will the ignominy of being seeded No.2 inspire Roger Federer to win a fifth consecutive Flushing Meadow win? Sean Calvert analyses the men's draw.

Roger Federer's bid to become the first man to win five consecutive US Open singles title since Bill Tilden in 1925 begins on Monday, but for once he isn't the favourite.

Will the fact that Rafa Nadal is now expected to bring home the title take the pressure off the Swiss or will the ignominy of being seeded number two inspire him to wrestle back the initiative from his Spanish counterpart?

Or will we see the fatigue of a long season take its toll on them both and a surprise champion emerge victorious?

Well, following the announcement of the draw on Thursday in which Federer and Djokovic are seeded to meet in the semis, Nadal has been trimmed in to [2.56] to claim his third slam of the year, while Fed and Djokovic are out to around [4.6] apiece.

Nadal's quarter of the draw should hold few major threats for him, as he is due only to face the likes of Tomas Berdych [360.00] followed by maybe David Nalbandian [210.00] in the last eight.

I say maybe because the frustrating Nalbandian must first defeat former finalist JC Ferrero [640.00] (who hammered him in this year's Australian Open) then quite possibly Gael Monfils [450.00] (who beat him last week in Beijing) before a likely meeting with James Blake [160.00] (1-0 Blake head-to-head).

It would be fantastic to see a Nalbandian v Nadal match up with both playing at their best and if that were the case then the current odds against Nalbandian would look huge, but who can say what physical and mental shape the Argentine will be in for the event.

Elsewhere in the top half, Andy Murray has a tricky looking route through to a potential semi-final clash with Nadal, as he must overcome Michael Llodra [1000.00] early, followed by Feliciano Lopez [1000.00], who will definitely be up for it on the big stage that he loves.

If he gets through that - and it must be remembered that Murray lost to HT Lee last year - he would face either Mikhail Youzhny [520.00] or Stan Wawrinka [300.00] before a clash with one of the players of the hardcourt swing, Gilles Simon [560.00] or Juan Martin Del Potro [50.0].

If those two fail it would be David Ferrer [200.00], who took out Nadal last year that would face Murray, so it's hard to have any confidence in the number six seed making it to the latter stages and I would be looking for around [50.0] before investing in the Scot.

Staying with the top half, a match that would prove very interesting viewing will be the potential second rounder between Mardy Fish and Paul Henri-Mathieu - two players who almost came to blows the last time they played. Keep your eyes open for that one if it happens.

The bottom half of the draw kicks off with a very interesting match up and one which Andy Roddick [100.00] must have groaned at when he saw the schedule, for the out of form number eight seed must play Fabrice Santoro [1000.00]. Watch out for that one, it could prove fascinating.

In the same quarter, Djokovic will fancy his chances with a reasonable looking draw as will Federer, who faces no one of any real danger until a possible meeting with Radek Stepanek [1000.00] in the third round followed by little else, unless Janko Tipsarevic [530] can find the form that allowed him to run Fed so close last year.

The interesting one in that mini-section would have to be Nikolay Davydenko [150.00], who is available at a big price due to his poor form this season, but his draw is very kind and he could be one to watch if he gets through the first few rounds and into the tournament.

Djokovic's path appears to be slightly the tougher, with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [200.00] (whose form and fitness is anyone's guess), Robby Ginepri (who always plays above himself in New York), Marin Cilic [560.00] and Fernando Gonzalez [280.00] to negotiate.

Nadal is the man to beat though of course and [2.56] could look massive in around 10 days time and that is surely where your cash should go, but I always go for the value and a small each way investment on Davydenko [150.00], David Ferrer [200.00], who is due some form and could go well here and Tipsarevic [530.00] might give you a run for your money.