US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 28 August 2010 /

Sean Calvert has looked hard at the draw to root out the best bets and, being the gent he is, shares them with you here

The draw has been made and we're all set for the 2010 US Open - two weeks of fantastic tennis in arguably the sporting event of the year.

Over the last few weeks we've looked at the top seeds and the contenders for the men's singles title in Flushing Meadows and now it's time to see where they all fit into the draw and who benefits most.

When talking about players benefiting from kind draws, you simply have to begin with Roger Federer at [3.3] who yet again has been handed the easiest start to a Slam possible, as if he needs any more help.

A likely meeting with Lleyton Hewitt in the third round would follow matches against Brian Dabul and either Michael Berrer or Andreas Beck, while the other two seeds in Fed's mini-section are Juan Carlos Ferrero and Jurgen Melzer.

Hardly a terrifying bunch and so once more, Federer has a straightforward passage to the quarter-finals, where he will most likely face a repeat of 2009's last eight clash with Robin Soderling.

The Swede, a [22.0] shot, has won the last two encounters with Federer though (if you count the exhibition match in the United Arab Emirates) and will be in with an outstanding chance of doing it again, now that he has the confidence of beating the Swiss in a Slam behind him.

Soderling's only real worry in his section will be if hit-and-miss Croatian Marin Cilic is on one of his go-weeks which, as Andy Murray discovered last year, can be devastating.

In the adjacent quarter, the winner from the Federer/Soderling section will go on to play one from Novak Djokjovic, Mardy Fish, Andy Roddick, Marcos Baghdatis, Gael Monfils or Nikolay Davydenko.

That section is wide open and any of the above could progress or perhaps even Janko Tipsarevic, Richard Gasquet or Robby Ginepri if they have an outstanding week, could spring a surprise and make it through.

I'd love to see Fish carry on his great form and be the one to face Federer or Soderling and he is the form player in that quarter, so I'm going to side with Fish at around [70.0] as I have been to profitable effect all summer.

He showed he's not scared to mix it with the Federers, Murrays and Roddicks last week and I hope he brings that A-game to the courts of the Billie Jean King Tennis Centre next week as well.

In the other half we have Murray and Rafa Nadal and this pair have been handed far tougher draws than Federer.

Pundits have been falling over themselves to side with Murray ever since Toronto, but I won't have a bar of it and I think he's shocking value at less than [5.0].

Admittedly, he played fantastically well in Canada, but he always seems to have an off day somewhere along the line in Slams and we saw how tired he was the week after Toronto in Cincy.

I don't trust him over seven five set matches in a fortnight and far better value in that section lies with the Scot's French Open conqueror Tomas Berdych or if fit, John Isner.

The only concern about the Czech is his fitness after a niggling muscle injury, but at [27.0] I'm happy to take my chances with that.

Murray could have the luck on his side if both Isner and Berdych are unable to perform at their best due to injury, with Isner looking the most doubtful with a bad ankle ligament sprain, but he might be tested even before that by another American.

Sam Querrey beat Murray in the Los Angeles final recently and the pair are due to meet in the fourth round in New York next week.

Querrey has a really poor record in Slams though and has just two fourth round appearances from his 16 Slams and you would expect the Scot to come out on top if that match happens, although I wouldn't be putting much on the outcome with Murray involved.

There really isn't much else in that section other than Mikhail Youzhny and Nicolas Almagro, but the Spaniard's Slam results are getting better and don't be surprised if he's the one that faces Murray in the fourth rather than Querrey.

I expect Berdych to come through that section though to play the winner of world number one Nadal's quarter.

Rafa's got two slightly tricky ones early on with Teimuraz Gabashvili and Denis Istomin, both of whom can play on hard and who both played well in New Haven this week.

Then Rafa's got Philipp Kohlschreiber, who he struggled with in Toronto and his third round opponent could be Ivan Ljubicic, who beat Rafa on hard in Indian Wells in their last meeting.

You would expect Rafa to come through to the quarters despite his dodgy hard-court form and there he is likely to face either David Ferrer, David Nalbandian, Fernando Verdasco or Ernests Gulbis.

Nalbandian doesn't have a great recent record here though and often flatters to deceive when it matters most. He hasn't been past the fourth round of a major since 2006, which is why I left him out of my contenders list, but he's certainly a dangerous player on his day. I just feel that over the two weeks he'll falter somewhere along the line.

As for Verdasco, well, forget it. You might as well set fire to your money as put it on Verdasco to win a major. It's not going to happen. Gulbis and Ferrer are much more likely to make the last eight than Verdy.

Nadal should make the quarters or semis, but I can't see him getting any further in these conditions, so overall then the value for this year has to be Berdych and Soderling to have the edge over Nadal and Federer at the prices.

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