US Open Final: Murray is in the form of his life but Federer looks back to his best

US Open Betting / Simon Mundie / 08 September 2008 / 1

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Murray against Federer in the US Open final pits probably the best British player of the open era, against arguably the greatest player of all time. For tennis fans around the UK, it's the final they would have hoped for, but in all likelihood didn't expect, says Simon Mundie.

A disappointing first round Olympic loss aside, Andy Murray came into the tournament in the best form of his life. He won his first Masters series title in Cincinatti after a morale boosting maiden Grand Slam quarter final at Wimbledon. He was certainly deemed an outsider for the title, but was he a genuine contender? As the tournament has progressed, he's answered that question emphatically, never more so than when disposing of Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals, playing the best tennis of his career, in extremely difficult circumstances, over two days.

As for Roger Federer, he arrived in New York with serious question marks hanging over his head. He'd lost his number one ranking as well as his Wimbledon title to Nadal, and many people believed his best days were firmly behind him. His game has looked less than fluent on occasion during his run to the final, but he disposed of Djokovic in impressive fashion in his semi.

So what can we expect in this final between two of the most gifted players on tour? The pair have met on three occasions, and it's been well documented that Murray leads their head to head by 2 matches to one.

Federer was far from his best during the two losses. But it was clear that as is the case with so many players on the men's tour, Federer wasn't sure of the best way to tackle Murray's mix of spins, clever angles and deft touches. The young Scot didn't give Federer a target, nor did he give him the pace which the Swiss defending champion can thrive off. As a result, he hit a large number of unforced errors in both their last two encounters as he tried to force the issue.

We shouldn't expect this match to pan out in the same way. There is so much on the line for Federer that he will be far better prepared than he was in either of those last two encounters. It's his fifth straight US Open final, and a fifth straight win would equal Bill Tilden's record which has stood since 1924. Having lost the opportunity to become the most prolific Wimbledon champion of the open era, and as a man who has his eyes so firmly focussed on the history books, he's going to leave nothing to chance. Furthermore, he's had an extra day to unwind and prepare.

As for Murray, beating Nadal in the semi-final proved to the world that it's no longer just the 'big three' of Nadal, Federer and Djokovic. But the final of a grand slam tournament is a different matter altogether. Make no mistake, Murray is here to win and he believes he can win, but he's never had to play in such a high stakes match before, and that fact alone can't be underestimated. Federer, by way of contrast, is playing his 17th Grand Slam final, which leaves him third on the all-time list behind only Pete Sampras and Ivan Lendl, so he knows exactly what to expect.

If Federer can repeat the form he displayed in his semi-final against Novak Djokovic, I expect Federer to win at [1.54], and fairly convincingly. He looked almost back to his fluid best, whereas Murray's semi-final opponent Nadal seemed tired by his summer's exploits. If Federer can snatch the first set at [1.65], the crowd will get behind him, willing him to re-establish himself as the man to beat, which could propel him to a straight sets victory at [3.95].

Murray on the other hand, will struggle to repeat the level of performance that he displayed in beating Nadal, and when he struggles against the top players as we saw against the Spaniard at Wimbledon, he can lose fairly convincingly, so I would expect the Swiss to win by more than 2.5 games over the course of the match.

Federer has this one chance to turn his year round, and considering what a great champion he is, I fully expect him to raise his game and show why many consider him to be the greatest of all time.

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Darry England | 08 September 2008

Im British and I despise Andrew Murray.

I will be praying that Federer not only beats the useless miserable pratt that goes by the name of Murray but that Federer humiliates the whinging Scottish twat.