US Open Daily Tips: Coach-less Jo can stun Fed again

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 07 September 2011 / 2 Comments

Tsonga can shock Federer once more...

"I simply have to go with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga today over Roger Federer in what could be an absolute classic encounter on Ashe under the lights."

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga couldn't be more confident and can once again upset the odds against Roger Federer, says Sean Calvert

The New York weather has wreaked havoc with the scheduling of the 2011 US Open and with no play yesterday we are now faced with a fixture congestion shambles that the USTA will do well to sort out.

Yesterday's bets will hopefully play today, but the forecast is for more heavy rain, so I'm not expecting much from Wednesday's revised schedule.

All three show courts are being utilised in an attempt to get the matches played and Andy Murray has been moved from Ashe to Grandstand and will play at 16:00 UK time if the rain abates.

The change of courts does make a difference to the likely outcome, with a good example being the Andy Roddick v David Ferrer match, which in my view swings in Ferrer's favour now that it's on Armstrong.

Roddick is used to the unique Ashe conditions, whereas the stadium court can cause problems even for someone as experienced as Ferrer and I take the Spaniard now in that clash.

As far as recommended bets go, I simply have to go with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga today over Roger Federer in what could be an absolute classic encounter on Ashe under the lights.

Playing without a coach, Tsonga's improvement this summer has been huge and he definitely believes he can take Fed out on a court where the Swiss has lost only twice since 2004.

The big Frenchman has won their last two matches at nice prices - both advised by me in this column - and while I expect Fed to play this one much tougher than he did in Montreal, the bet has to be Tsonga at [3.35].

Whoever wins, it will surely be a long match, so over 38.5 games at around [2.0] looks good as well.

Elsewhere in the men's draw, Novak Djokovic takes on friend and compatriot Janko Tipsarevic second up on Ashe and I honestly don't see Tipsy finishing this match.

He was wincing and getting treatment on his knee in the last round and with his retirement record (23 retirements or withdrawals in his career) it's an easy out if he's well behind.

If he's fit, this might be a decent match, as Janko won't be cowed by Nole's status and the best bet in this one is to lay Djokovic 3-0, as all bets are void if either player retires and it's likely that Tipsy will if he's taking a beating.

In the women's quarter-finals, I'd love to think that A-Pavs has a chance against Serena, but her serving has been awful and that one could be a good hiding for the Russian unfortunately, unless she has an amazing day on serve.

The most competitive women's match (apart from Stosur v Zvonareva, which I advised yesterday) should be Caroline Wozniacki v Andrea Petkovic, which could well go the distance.

Woz is never a wise investment in a Slam and Petko won the pair's only hard-court career meeting in Miami this year, so the underdog has a chance at around [2.96] in this one.

If Petko is free of any injury concerns, she should push Caro close and my bet in this one is over 22.5 games at [2.28].

Recommended Bets
Back Tsonga to beat Federer at [3.35]
Back over 38.5 games in Tsonga v Federer at [2.0]
Lay Djokovic 3-0 v Tipsarevic at [1.5]
Back over 22.5 games in Wozniacki v Petkovic at [2.28]

Comments (2)

1. Mike | 08 September 2011

   Apologies if I'm being stupid here.

   I appreciate you can't do anything about the rain that has caused havoc with the schedule, but it's taking staff hours to get the courts dry with hot-air dryers once the rain does stop.

   If that's the case, then why doesn't the US Open use rain covers?

   The players aren't happy at all, saying the courts are damp and slippy. Surely, rain covers would mean that once the rain stops the players could get onto a dry court almost immediately.

   Or is that too simple for the American organisers?

2. Sean Calvert | 08 September 2011

   I totally agree, Mike. The US Open officials won't use court covers because they say they look 'ugly' at the side of the courts.

   Bizarre, but true.

   They can't put a roof on Grandstand or Armstrong because of the weight on top of marshy ground that the stadiums are built on and Ashe is too big for a roof apparently.

   So, we're stuck with it for the foreseeable future I'm afraid unless the USTA have a change of heart.