US Open Betting: Who comes out on top from the terrific trio?

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 20 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Suited and booted but who's the "smart" money on?

"Supreme. (Nadal) Has that lead over Federer and also has a handy 8-4 lead over Murray. All of the Scot’s four wins have come on hard-courts, but Nadal also has four hard-court wins to his name. Nadal leads 2-0 on grass and clay and in Slams it’s 3-2 to Nadal. Met once in New York, in the semi of 2008 with Murray winning in four."

Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are almost impossible to split on the US Open winner market so Sean Calvert uses maths (well, sort of) to find which of these three is the value in the market.

With the US Open less than a fortnight away, it's time to evaluate the leading contenders on the men's side and see which of them might come out on top for the last Slam of 2010.

World number two Roger Federer is currently the narrow favourite at ([4.0]) to win his sixth Flushing Meadows crown, ahead of Rafa Nadal ([4.1]) and Andy Murray at ([4.8]).

The layers think it's a three horse race, but what do the stats tell us? We've selected four crucial factors that will be key in New York: Current Form; US Open Pedigree; Head-to-head; and Grand Slam performance.

Let's start with the favourite, Roger Federer...

Current Form: Patchy. There's little doubt that the Swiss maestro is slightly on the wane in his 30th year, as can be highlighted by losses in 2010 to the likes of Marcos Baghdatis, Ernests Gulbis, Albert Montanes and Lleyton Hewitt. Reached the final in Toronto though. 3 out of 5.

US Open Pedigree: Excellent. Champion at Flushing Meadows five times in a row between 2004 and 2008, winning 41 matches in a row. It took a superhuman effort from Juan Martin Del Potro last year to wrestle the title from Federer's grasp and it might take the same from someone this year. 5/5

Head-to-head: Possible weak link. Rafa has come out on top in 14 of their 21 meetings, but on hard-courts the score is 3-3 between the pair. They've never met at the US Open and only once in a hard-court Slam - the Australian Open of 2009 when Rafa won and Fed cried. Against Murray it's 5-7 to the Scot. 2/5

Grand Slam Pedigree: Untouchable. 22 Grand Slam finals; 16 Slams in all; Semi finals or better in 23 consecutive Slams. Quite simply the best Grand Slam record of any male tennis player, current, past, alive or dead. 5/5

Total of 15 out of 20

Second favourite Rafa Nadal...

Current Form: Formidable. Until Nadal's defeat by Murray in Toronto, the Spaniard had won five from his last six tournaments, including a second Wimbledon title and an unprecedented hat-trick of clay Masters events, plus another French Open. Has won 50 and lost 6 matches in 2010. 5/5

US Open Pedigree: The weak link. The pacy courts and stifling heat of New York have proved to be Rafa's Achilles heel to date. He doesn't have the time on this surface to play his trademark looping top spin shots and can be rushed into mistakes that he would never make on clay. Best effort so far is two semi finals. Not bad, but was thrashed last year by Del Potro. 2/5

Head-to-head: Supreme. Has that lead over Federer and also has a handy 8-4 lead over Murray. All of the Scot's four wins have come on hard-courts, but Nadal also has four hard-court wins to his name. Nadal leads 2-0 on grass and clay and in Slams it's 3-2 to Nadal. Met once in New York, in the semi of 2008 with Murray winning in four. 4/5

Grand Slam Pedigree: Impressive. Nine Grand Slam wins from 25 starts is a win percentage of 36 percent, which is exactly the same percentage as Federer's 16 wins from 45 Slams. Could yet overtake Federer's record mark if his knees hold out, but Fed just edges it at the moment. 4.5/5

Overall: 15.5

And the outsider of the three, Andy Murray...

Current Form: Much improved. The Scot has endured one of his worst years in recent memory in 2010, with a to date mark of 30-11. Suffered disappointing losses on hard-courts this season to Mardy Fish and Janko Tipsarevic, but roared back to form in some style in Toronto last week. One swallow doesn't make a summer though. 4/5

US Open Pedigree: Hit and miss. Reached the final in 2008, beating Del Potro and Nadal en route to a straight sets loss to Federer, but that apart, Murray has never been further than the last 16 in five visits to Flushing Meadows. Thrashed in straights by Marin Cilic last year and lost to Hyung-Taik Lee in 2007. 3/5

Head-to-head: Has that winning mark of 7-5 over Federer and all 12 of
their encounters have come on hard-courts, with Federer winning in
three of the four finals they've contested. The Scot has a 3-2 lead on
North American hard-courts though and of course won their last meeting
in Canada in straight sets. 3/5

Grand Slam Pedigree: Patchy. This US Open will be Murray's 20th Grand Slam and he is of course yet to win one. His closest efforts have been
the final defeats in New York and Melbourne, but other than that the Scot has been pretty inconsistent in the Slams. Losses to Chela, Monfils, Baghdatis, Verdasco, Gonzalez and Cilic at Slams aren't going to get the job done. 3/5

Overall: 13

So, on that basis, Nadal looks the best of the leading contenders in this year's US Open, but as the odds suggest, it's close.