US Open Betting: What price a new grand slam winner in the men's draw?

US Open Betting / Barry Millns / 29 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Physically Tsonga should be strong enough providing he avoids the kind of injuries which blighted the first part of his career. But mentally, like anyone still seeking a first major, a question mark will remain against his name until he has won one."

Sky Sports commentator Barry Millns rates the chances of three long shots with potential - Juan Martin Del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco

Aside from America's leading man, Andy Roddick, heading into this year's US Open the main spotlight in the Big Apple has fallen on the 'Big Four' in men's tennis. But if Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic all fail to pick up the trophy then what chance of success have the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco, who all bring a certain X-Factor with their best tennis?

This time last year Del Potro, currently trading at [15.5] to become the champion, was still a teenager when he arrived in New York on the crest of a four-title wave that surprised him as much as everyone else. Having done little of note up to and including Wimbledon in 2008, the towering young Argentine suddenly turned into a serious threat and by the time he reached the quarter-finals he was on a 23-match winning streak.

Murray ultimately got the better of Del Potro in that encounter, as he did in the Argentine's most recent match - the final of this year's Montreal Masters 1000. But in between times there has been a steady progression with the Argentine establishing himself as a major force in the game, including first career wins over Murray and Nadal, plus a five-set semi-final loss to Federer at the French Open.

Although Del Potro can look very lethargic between points, he moves very well during them for such a tall player and the strength of his shots, with a much improved serve now a solid foundation, is driven by a fierce will to win. Yet having worked like a demon to defend his title in Washington the week before Montreal, his stamina ultimately flagged the following Sunday against Murray which would suggest he still has to get stronger - time, at least, is very much on his side and I think his time will ultimately come.

For Tsonga, ([65.0]), some three years older than Del Potro, following up his 2008 run to the final of the Australian Open has yet to be matched or bettered. Back then his powerful, aggressive and very athletic style steamrollered opponents out of the way and thrilled the crowds in the process.

Injury then robbed him of much of last season before he returned to fitness and form, wowing the French public with his Paris Masters triumph. Two more titles followed early this year and while the last few months have been more solid than spectacular, his sensational comeback against Federer in Montreal completed his set of career wins over all the current top players.

If anything, though, that match against the world's best underlined Tsonga's inconsistency or as Federer, himself, put it: "That's what Jo does - he doesn't make a return for an hour and then he puts in a few and then all of a sudden he's back in the match." In other words it is difficult for Tsonga's opponents to know what's coming next and he has the ability to light things up and draw huge confidence from the crowd just when you think he is done.

Physically Tsonga should be strong enough providing he avoids the kind of injuries which blighted the first part of his career. But mentally, like anyone still seeking a first major, a question mark will remain against his name until he has won one.

It was the 25 year-old Verdasco, ([130.0]), who stopped Tsonga in the quarter-finals at this year's Australian Open, having previously beaten Murray in five sets. After seeing off those two, the hero of Spain's Davis Cup triumph just week's before then nearly beat Spain's favourite son (Nadal) in a marathon semi-final.

Much was made at the time of the input and encouragement Verdasco received from Andre Agassi, Darren Cahill and Gil Reyes. The once flaky Verdasco had a new found resolve and greater mental strength to back up his immense forehand and was a joy to watch.

But seven months on, while Verdasco has played in eight more quarterfinals he has only just reached one more semi and has yet to add to his tally of two career titles achieved in July last year. His build-up to this year's Open in the bigger events has been disappointing and while I do believe Del Potro and Tsonga have major titles in them, I would be amazed if Verdasco ever gets his hands on one.