US Open Betting: We give you "the contenders"

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 26 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Andy Roddick has won at Flushing Meadows before

"Much of the value has gone now of course, but with a kind draw away from Federer, Mardy could still prove to be a decent price at [55] with his confidence sky high. Tomas Berdych is another trading at a very backable price. The Czech is priced up at a tempting [30.0] and despite an average campaign so far on the North American hard-courts this summer, I think that he’ll beat his best US Open effort this year."

The chances of Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have been discussed already so now it's time to look at the "contenders", players available at big prices who are in a with a real chance of causing an upset. Sean Calvert briefs us...

Last week we compared the chances of the top three in the betting for the US Open title, but there is plenty of depth in the men's game at the moment and this week we focus on 'the contenders'.

These are my picks of the guys who are currently priced from around [16.0] up to [160.0] and as we saw with Juan Martin Del Potro last year, the title is by no means certain to be won by one of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray.

Much will depend on tonight's draw, but the six most likely to challenge the 'big three' are Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, Robin Soderling, Mardy Fish, Andy Roddick and John Isner. On the face of it, number three seed Djokovic appears to represent excellent value, compared with Murray and if he finds the form that he produced for the most part in Toronto, then he could be a very good back-to-lay bet.

However, one of the reasons that he's [16.0] is that he has developed a disturbing Murray-like tendency to lose the plot in the middle of matches and doesn't always get it back, as Murray tends to do. His 38-12 season record is hardly worthy of a world number three and perhaps the most worrying aspect of all for Djokovic backers has to be the way he struggles in the heat. It was painful to watch at times in Toronto and Cincy and if the Big Apple warms up, we could see Nole melting down, though he has reached two semis and a final in the last three years - and lost them all to Federer.

I had a speculative punt on Mardy Fish before the summer at [600.0] and am feeling pretty happy about my small investment at the moment; he's currently just [55.0]. I highlighted the American as potentially one of the stars of the summer back in July and he proved me right with a string of excellent efforts, culminating in that great run to the final in Cincy.

This has always been Fish's time of year and prior to missing out through injury in 2009, the world number 21 reached the last eight in 2008, losing in four sets to Nadal and he is twice the player now than he was two years ago.

Much of the value has gone now of course, but with a kind draw away from Federer, Mardy could still prove to be a decent price at [55] with his confidence sky high. Tomas Berdych is another trading at a very backable price. The Czech is priced up at a tempting [30.0] and despite an average campaign so far on the North American hard-courts this summer, I think that he'll beat his best US Open effort this year.

The world number seven has never bettered the last 16 at Flushing Meadows, but his Slam efforts in Paris and London this year suggest that over the longer matches, Berdych's previously wavering concentration is now up to the job over two weeks of five set matches. A niggling muscle injury may be the cause of the Berdman's results since Wimbledon and if that's cleared up, he looks big at [30.0].

Another big, flat hitter that should prosper on the quick courts of New York is Robin Søderling and he is also a clear and present threat to the top three at a handy price of around [22.0].

The big Swede participated in a light North American hard-court campaign this summer, entering just two events (Toronto and Cincy) partly due to commitments to appear in his home event in Båstad. Losses to Andy Roddick and David Nalbandian in those events are no disgrace, but if I were on Søderling, I'd be worried about his lack of hard-court match practice and the fact that he's never bettered the last eight in New York. On the plus side though, he went into the French Open this year and last with no sort of form and stormed to the final both times, so don't let the form be your only concern when considering a back of Søderling.

The Swede's conqueror in Cincy, Andy Roddick, is another who could capitalize if anything happens to the major players. A-Rod has been under the weather with a viral illness of late, but came good last week and with another week's rest under his belt, a repeat of his 2003 triumph isn't totally out of the question. Not many fancied him to win in Miami, but he prevailed at a great price and with the improvements that coach Larry Stefanki has made to the overall Roddick game, he'll always be a threat with that serve still firing.

Roddick hasn't been past the quarters since 2006 though and he'll be desperate to put that right this time. Finally, the man that beat Roddick last year, John Isner is - if fit - about the best of the bigger priced players who stand a genuine outsider's chance.

That match with Roddick was one of the highlights of the US Open 2009 and he's pushed on since then to become a top-20 player after being ranked at 55 this time last year. It will be a real shame if his injured ankle means that the huge-serving Isner can't play, as no-one will want to be drawn in his quarter.

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