US Open Betting Tips Day Ten: Revenge on the cards for Federer

US Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 08 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

Roger Federer will have to be at his best to defeat the ever-improving Robin Soderling

"The windy conditions in New York may prove to be a major factor in determining the outcome of this match. Federer seemed to cope well with the windy conditions in his fourth round match against Jurgen Melzer."

Ben Caudell talks us through the stats and the form of Roger and Robin ahead of tonight's much-awaited encounter.

Robin Soderling (SWE) v Roger Federer (SUI)

Day 10 at the US Open and there's a brilliant night match in prospect on the Arthur Ash Stadium court, in a repeat of the 2009 quarter final match between five time champion Roger Federer and two time French Open finalist Robin Soderling.

Roger Federer defeated Soderling in last year's quarter final show piece in four sets 6-0 6-3 6-7 7-6 and leads the overall head -to-head series 12-1 (12-2 if we include the 2009 Abu Dhabi exhibition match win for the Swede). However it was Soderling who managed to combat his fears of playing the greatest player of all time to take their most recent encounter (a 3-6 6-3 7-5 6-4 win at the French Open in May of this year) and will be confident in the knowledge that he has the ability to replicate this performance and upset the odds once again.

In the past, Soderling was considered as an underachiever but the 26-year-old has since become a remarkably consistent performer on practically all surfaces, which is why he is sitting at a career high of no.5 in the world rankings. With a title win on the indoor courts of Rotterdam, two Master Series semi-finals on the US hard courts at Indian Wells and Miami and final appearances at Barcelona and Roland Garros on the clay, it is understandable that the Swiss is wary of Soderling's aptitude coming into tonight's encounter.

The windy conditions in New York may prove to be a major factor in determining the outcome of this match. Federer seemed to cope well with the windy conditions in his fourth round match against Jurgen Melzer:

"I felt comfortable [in the wind] because you can also use it to your advantage and play really great tennis," said Federer. "You have to be careful with it and maybe not aim at the lines as much. After, four games or so, I knew what I could do and what I couldn't do."

Soderling on the other hand will have problems with his ball toss and gigantic back swing on his forehand which is more vulnerable to wind, so we can expect a higher amount of unforced errors from the Swede. He does however enjoy the night matches and will be relishing the challenge of playing as the underdog against the very best in the world.
Federer v Soderling matches are generally quite close. From the 14 matches they have played there have been 14 tie-breaks and only seven matches have been won in straight sets. I expect this match to be another great US Open spectacle and predict that Federer will win this in four sets

Selection:

Back Over 37.5 Games @ [1.7]
Back Tie Break played? Yes @ 1.6 (best bet)
Back Federer 3-1 @ [3.7]