US Open Betting: The Russians are coming!

US Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 22 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Cold War may have officially finished years ago, but that doesn't mean the USA shouldn't be wary of the threat posed by Russian dominance. Gary Boswell looks at a women's draw where Dementieva and co will look to carry their Olympic momentum into Flushing Meadows.

The Boz table proved a bit of a flop in the Beijing Tennis Tournament. The column I omitted was the Muscovite Investment Factor as the Russian team executed an astonishing clean sweep of the medals.

Here was a strong example of a betting lesson that I learned many moons ago. If you feel you've got a pre-tournament decision wrong - as I did in laying Elena Dementieva, largely on the strength of her infamous ability to wobble when the chips are down - always take the opportunity to hedge out of your liabilities if it presents itself.

At 6-3 4-2 down against Serena in the quarter finals, Dementieva - just two games from the exit - drifted into triple figures as a Back on the outright market. Then, as can so often happen in women's tennis, she then went on a remarkable run of nine straight games against the so-called "invincible granite slab" that is Serena Williams. Inspired by that win, she brushed aside compatriots Vera Zvonareva and Dinara Safina - the two form players in the women's game - and showed no sign of a wobble in winning the first significant tournament of her career. She will come to Flushing Meadows a new woman.

The one thing I did get right about Beijing is that I predicted the fittest woman would prevail in the gruelling heat and humidity. Safina's new lithe confidence looked on course until she boiled like a beetroot in the final and Dementieva - who has always been the fastest woman round the court on the women's circuit - stepped in and conquered the mental demons that had her famously weeping on court at Roland Garros in 2004. Dementieva, I think, has finally matured.

It was a defining moment in the women's game for me. Here is a slight, no-beef athlete who relies on the aesthetics of court coverage and playing the diagonals overcoming the bash bash bash that has dominated women's tennis for over a decade.

Despite the bite in my wallet and the dent in my tipping ego, it was a pleasure to behold.
And I am making no mistakes at Flushing Meadow. You Americans must prepare yourselves. The Russians are coming!

The betting market is still dominated by the old school thinking that the Williams sisters will prevail, but Serena's capitulation against Dementieva in Beijing was just the latest in a long line of clues pointing to the fact that the Sisters' star is waning. As with Federer in the men's game, tiredness and lack of physical well-being is getting regularly into the ageing brain and slowing down the responses that have so long kept them at the top of the game. What happens to great tennis players as their domination begins to fade? They move over to winning the doubles! It's no co-incidence in my mind that Federer and the Williamses came away from Beijing with Doubles Gold. They don't quite have the legs required for singles gold on a fast court in the heat any more. The freezing temperatures at Wimbledon obviously helped a bit!

You could argue that the Beijing results - coupled with the continued absence of Sharapova through injury and Henin's retirement - have created a massive vacuum at the top of the women's game. My chart seems to confirm that. All scores are getting closer together, and the flip-flop that Jankovic and Ivanovic are doing in and out of the world number one spot seems further evidence. Both seemed to take the mantle as a cue for playing their worst tennis ever.

You can find negatives in all the top players coming into Flushing Meadow, with the clear exception of the Russians who are perhaps on the brink of reaping the serious rewards from the investment ploughed into the game in recent years. Zvonareva would be my idea of a plausible long-shot for this one. Off the competitive court for a year, she has steadily made inroads into her world ranking in 2008 and will take great heart from her bronze medal in Beijing. [100.0] looks long on a player who has lost just one game in her last ten, and that to a Dementieva who must also be supported this time. There is a possibility that the hormonal joy bubbling over in Beijing was the catalyst for propelling this beguiling player into an era of domination that could not have been forecast before. [18.0] is a fair price considering that she may also go the other way and revert to type!

Shortest in the betting, because she's the youngest and most promising, Safina is still on my miss list. She hits the ball alright but her serve is far from reliable yet and she was given a tennis lesson by Dementieva in the Beijing final.