US Open Betting: "Only Federer, Nadal, Murray and Davydenko can now win this thing"

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 02 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

Andy Murray's straight sets first round win was good news for those backing him to win the tournament

"The last time someone was taken to five sets in the opening round and went on to win the tournament? The answer, Patrick Rafter in 1998, when he went two sets down to Hicham Arazi before coming out on top in their opening round clash and going on to play another five setter (against Pete Sampras in the semis) en route to the title."

When picking a Slam winner these days, it seems you need to be something of a meteorologist as well as having a keen eye for tennis ability and player character.

This is a most vital factor in Melbourne and in New York, where the regularly blistering temperatures can top the dials at over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, as they have at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre this week.

When I was courtside there in 2008, the locals on the uncovered sections of the Grandstand, Louis Armstrong and Arthur Ashe Stadium courts opted for umbrellas as the accessory of choice to keep out the blazing sunshine and it has been much the same this year.

And the players have been affected by it, leading to a plethora of five set matches, where the competitors have given up in sets when a break or two down and saved their resources for the following sets.

Novak Djokovic was always going to be the most likely of the big guns to suffer from the heat and as he told the spectators on Ashe on Tuesday that: "playing in the shade in the fifth set was like sleeping with my girlfriend!"

A somewhat crude but apposite analogy from the Serb after being taken to a decider by countryman Viktor Troicki and he was by no means the only top player to suffer in the heat of Queens.

Robin Søderling, Fernando Verdasco, Mardy Fish, David Nalbandian, Gael Monfils and Jurgen Melzer were all made to suffer in five set matches, while Marcos Baghdatis and Lleyton Hewitt lost in five and Tomas Berdych went out in three.

And that's on top of the disturbing sight of Vika Azarenka leaving the court in a wheelchair after collapsing, which she later claimed was due to an earlier fall in the gym. OK Vika, we believe you. Nothing to do with the heat.

The good news for those that made it through is that the forecast - at the moment - for next week is of slightly cooler temperatures, but have some of the contenders blown it already by expending too much energy in the first round?

The last time that a US Open Men's Singles Champion was extended to five sets in the first two rounds of the tournament was in 2001 when Hewitt needed just over three hours to take out James Blake in round two.

And the last time someone was taken to five sets in the opening round and went on to win the tournament?

The answer, Patrick Rafter in 1998, when he went two sets down to Hicham Arazi before coming out on top in their opening round clash and going on to play another five setter (against Pete Sampras in the semis) en route to the title.

Rafter was a gritty competitor with seemingly endless energy and his '98 feat is all the more remarkable when you consider that he played and won the Long Island event the week before the Open that year.

It's no surprise that Rafter's record hasn't been matched in the 11 years since 1998 and fact fans will be interested to know that the only other player since the US Open changed from the US National Championships in 1968 to have won it after a five set first round match is another Aussie.

You have to go back to 1973 when the event was held on grass for John Newcombe's win after sneaking a first round five setter against Mexican Marcello Lara to put Rafter's feat into context.

So, on that basis, your shortlist should be reduced substantially and of the recognized favourites, only Federer, Nadal, Murray and Davydenko can now win this thing at a price of less than [150.0] if history is any guide.

Murray of course had a stroll in the park against Lukas Lacko and with Tomas Berdych losing and the weather calming down, the Scot has had a perfect first week so far.

His price has come in to [4.2] as a consequence and with the weather set to break soon, Murray's only concerns ahead of what now appears a straightforward route to the semis are John Isner and potentially Hurricane Earl, which is apparently heading that way.

On the other side of the draw, things look great for Federer, who lost a potential semi final opponent in Andy Roddick last night and with Søderling extended to five against an unknown qualifier earlier in the week, along with Djokovic, it's looking like a seventh final in a row for the Swiss already.