US Open Betting: Men v Women at Flushing Meadows

US Open Betting / Matthew Walton / 22 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

No, it's not the mixed doubles. It's men's singles or women's singles. Matthew Walton pits the ladies against the gents at this year's US Open and asks, "where is the value?"

The US Open provides a fitting finale to the Grand Slam year with the razzmatazz of Flushing Meadows bringing down the curtain on another quartet of annual, top-flight tournaments. All we have to do is work out who will be added to the list of 2008 Grand Slam winners - which players will join Djokovic and Nadal, Sharapova, Ivanovic and Venus Williams as the big winners of the year?

Traditionally, the US Open has been exactly that, 'open'. If we go back through recent years, the men's event has seen Rafter (1997), Safin (2000), Hewitt (2001) and Roddick (2003) all record their maiden Grand Slam titles. We've seen 7 different champions in the last decade of the men's championships - and that's even allowing for Roger Federer's current winning streak of four.

The women are no different. They too have had 7 different winners in the last 10 years and Venus Williams in 2001 was the last champion to defend her crown - something that can't happen after Justine Henin's retirement. We've also seen Davenport (1998), Serena (1999), Kuznetsova (2004) and Kim Clijsters (2005) win their first Slam titles here in the Big Apple.

The over-riding feeling is that the US Open gives us punters half a chance of making some money on Betfair. There's enough variety to keep markets full of liquidity and options are always open to those with a keen eye ... such as ourselves!

However, we would suggest that it's perhaps the women's side of proceedings that offers more potential than the men's draw. After all, do you really expect somebody other than Nadal, Federer or Djokovic to walk off with the men's title?

This 'Holy Trinity' have collectively won the last 14 Grand Slams (that's going back to the French Open 2005). That's Federer (8), Nadal (5) and Djokovic (1). It was also a Federer-Djokovic final we saw here last year. What's more, during this period since 2005 we've seen 34 Masters Series events played and these three players have hoovered up 26 of them - that's a huge 76%.

The Olympics ... Nadal. The world's top three in the rankings ... Nadal, Federer, Djokovic. The top three in the betting ... Nadal, Federer, Djokovic. And so it goes. Should we expect a change in the world order come September 7th? Probably not.

Alright, Nadal only has a best effort of a QF here (last year) but that Olympic gold medal will be a huge boost to his chances (added to a pretty soft draw). Of course, Andy Murray has a shot as his draw has kept him away from Federer and Djokovic, but then again, the Scot is 0:5 against his Spanish nemesis should they meet in the SF's. And although the bottom half of the draw is stacked with better players and has more strength in depth, Djokovic looks to have a good chance of getting through the 3rd quarter as does the fast-fading Federer in the 4th section.

The problem with the men is that the collective dominance of these three players is so great that, as backers, we have very little room for manoeuvre. Possibly a Nalbandian, Gonzalez or Gasquet could get into the mix. Murray has only himself to blame if he falls short of the SF's but stray outside of the 'Big Three' and you're betting without the back-up of a whole lot of statistics!

Thankfully, you can take quite the opposite view with the women. Despite all roads seemingly leading to the Williams sisters they haven't won here (in the shape of Serena) since 2002. More to the point, neither has made the final since then.

True, they played out the final at Wimbledon just the other month but both then failed in the QF's of the Olympics ... and crucially, they are in the same 2nd quarter of the draw, so that's one of them gone before the SF's!

The retirement of Justin Henin and Kim Clijsters plus the injuries/retirement and possible return of players such as Davenport and Pierce, the shoulder problem of Sharapova, the demise of Mauresmo - it all stirs up the women's draw into quite a study.

The Russian 1-2-3 at Beijing, led by Elena Dementieva, underlined the need these days to look East and not West for the leading talents in the women's game.

The top two seeds, Ivanovic and Jankovic, head the field although in fairness neither has done much in the last couple of months. Then you have the likes of Safina, Radwanska, Kuznetsova and Chakvetadze all capable of mounting a serious challenge.

It's a fascinating study and we could very well have the fifth different champion here in the past five years. In fact, that would be the logical call as only Kuznetsova (2004) is playing here this year.

As the draw has put Ivanovic, the in-form Safina, Radwanska and both Williams sisters in the top half you'd be wise to seek out some tasty options in the bottom section - take your pick from any of the 64 available!

What this all leads to, men and women, is a tremendous fortnight of action. Quality matches and lots to get stuck into on Betfair. Perhaps the men's event is a little less 'open' than in previous years but that is more than made up for by the women's championship which is just about as 'open' as any we can remember.

As ever, study the draw, analyse the head-to-heads and consider the value before getting involved - because when you do, it could be a very good time in the Big Apple!