US Open Betting: First-time Slam winner on the cards and there's an obvious candidate

US Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 24 August 2010 / 6 Comments

Oh Carolina. The Canadian is ready to break her Grand Slam duck.

"As is world number two Caroline Wozniacki who was also on fire in winning at Montreal and does seem to have overcome the ankle injury that dogged her movement during the French Open and Wimbledon. She was finalist here last year and made quarters at Roland Garros before succumbing to eventual winner Francesca Schiavone whom she trounced 6-2 6-3 on the hard court last week. That Garros effort and here last year were her best two Slam results yet and there is a feeling around the tennis aficionados that it is only a matter of time before the Young Dane, with her graceful serve, wins one."

Gary Boswell tells us how the absences of Serena Williams and Justine Henin have thrown the US Open wide open and why Caroline Wozniacki may just be the one to cash in...

The upcoming US Open women's tennis Grand Slam has become an intriguing event with the defection - due to injury - of senior protagonists Serena Williams and Justine Henin. The betting is understandably very open now with recent Cincinnati finalists Kim Clijsters and Maria Sharapova top of the revised market.

Defending champion Clijsters is [5.8] to back and [5.9] to lay and which way round to play her is the big question as she was impressive in saving match points in that final against Sharapova to prevail 2-6 7-6 6-2. It was the big twos' first meeting of the new era since the Belgian's return from motherhood and the Russian's rehabilitation from major shoulder surgery. Their head-to-head before 2007 makes interesting reading. Clijsters was 4-0 up during the years 2003-05 with Sharapova clawing it back to 4-3 during 2006 and 2007 before the big time ended for both of them.

Clijsters came back with a bang at Flushing Meadow last year of course but had done very little since before this tour win suggesting perhaps that it is still Sharapova who is on the bigger of the two comeback trails. Certainly you can interpret the head-to- head that way - Sharapova had mastered Clijsters' game during her 'matured' years when she briefly dominated the women's game and watching her gradually recover some of that form on a constant upcurve does suggest that there is still more to come. We will probably never see her serve again the way she did in blowing Serena away as a 17 year old in the Wimbledon final but her performance against the same opponent this summer is also arguably the best we've seen from her since.

My colleague Guy McCrea's piece for betting.betfair.com a few weeks back on why the women's game is not dominated by teenagers any more was very illuminating and applies perhaps to Sharapova more than most. Reconstructive shoulder surgery in your teenage years (not as a result of an accidental injury) cannot be taken lightly and the slow and painful road back to full fitness is a cautionary tale for us all.

Can Sharapova complete the comeback trail and win this one? She's a very short [6.6] back to do so considering that she is still only 12 in the WTA rankings and that every progressive step forward has been so very small for her these past twelve months. Simply no explosive return to the old form.

I do fancy her chances more than that of Clijsters however, who is a small lay for me. The Belgian has developed a bogey opponent in Sharapova's compatriot Vera Zvonareva who came from behind to score an inaugural win against Clijsters on her way to the Wimbledon final and who followed that up with a repeat win at Montreal last week winning again on a roll. This time nine straight games that turned the match on its head. That is very much a feature of Zvonareva's play. She is a groove player and it was noticeable in her defeat to Serena in the Wimbledon final how she was simply unable to find that groove in any way, shape or form and was made to thus look ordinary. Reason for her continued ranking outside the top ten of course and price for this Slam of [24.0] which can definitely be considered a long price if that groove can be found. Hard court is her number one surface and she was in terrific form in the Rogers Cup lead in event so that she is surely one for the value shortlist.

As is world number two Caroline Wozniacki who was also on fire in winning at Montreal and does seem to have overcome the ankle injury that dogged her movement during the French Open and Wimbledon. She was finalist here last year and made quarters at Roland Garros before succumbing to eventual winner Francesca Schiavone whom she trounced 6-2 6-3 on the hard court last week. That Garros effort and here last year were her best two Slam results yet and there is a feeling around the tennis aficionados that it is only a matter of time before the Young Dane, with her graceful serve, wins one. She has a 10/3 win to loss record at Flushing Meadows and in such hot current form, her price of [10.0] - down from [13.5] before the Montreal win - can definitely still be considered long.

Apart from Clijsters and Sharapova, there are only four other previous Slam winners competing. One of those is Ana Ivanovic, ([42.0]) playing better again but ranked 39 and still a shadow of her number one form. Venus Williams ([12.5]) showed at Wimbledon that her days are slowly numbering now and if her serve fails, she is very beatable whilst Svetlana Kuznetsova [20.0] remains very in and out of form and French Open winner Francesca Schiavone [90.0] will surely be out gunned on the faster surface.

Which all points to the possibility of a fisrt-time winner. If you don't fancy Wozniacki or Zvonareva, you may consider the amiable Chinese duo Na Li [55.0] and Jie Zheng [160.0] both of whom have excellent hardcourt records and have also suggested that a big win is on the way east. If the Trophy was handed out on personality, the brilliant humour of these two would win it hands down!

Watch out also for my five Five Ps. All players I have tracked and been impressed with over the past twelve months and whose game is both exciting to watch and imminently progressive. That's young Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova [50.0] who is made in the mould of Sharapova - Bulgarian Tsvetana Pironkova [160.0] whose delicate touch was a joy to behold in getting her to the Wimbledon semi (but may well be less effective here) - German Andrea Petkovic [130.0] - whose serving shoulders are the most impressive on tour since the demise of Amelie Mauresmo - Italian Flavia Pennetta [50.0] who thrives on hardcourt but is probably doing too well at doubles with Dulko to be backed as singles champion - and finally Czech superstar Petra Kvitova [120.0] whose win over Kaia Kanepi in the Wimbledon QF was my favourite match of recent years and whose gangly foal-like gait will win her multiple admirers in the game as she continues to emerge from duckling into swan.

But who should you back? The Boz is on the serving grace of Caroline Wozniacki bigtime at [10.0] and his portfolio also contains a small lay on defending champion Kim Clijsters at [5.9]

Comments (6)

1. Fred | 25 August 2010

   The demise of Amelie Mauresmo?

   how old are you Mr Boswell? 10 maybe?

   the demise of a person means the DEATH and Amelie Mauresmo is very well alive.

   That sentence is very SEXIST and HOMOPHOBIC and I made sure to send her the link since I work for her website,
   Rest assure you will hear from her LAWYERS Didier Poulmaire and her American lawyer as well.

   I also made sure to send the same link to Petkovic's American lawyer too.

2. steve | 25 August 2010

   Fred, as a 10 year old myself I find your comments greatly offensive and ageist. You too will be hearing from my Lawyer.

3. Alex | 26 August 2010

   Apart from the text underneath the picture calling Wozniacki Canadian (she's Danish), the sentence about Zvonareva being outside the top 10 (she's 8th), and the comment about Clijsters doing little since winning the US Open last year - she's won tournaments in Brisbane and Miami (the biggest event outside the Slams) as well as in Cincinnati, despite being injured for 2 months, with Wozniacki the only other player to win 3 titles this year - this is actually fairly accurate.

4. Sean | 27 August 2010

   @ Fred. I think you have a complete lack of legal knowledge to go with your ignorance.

   One of the definitions of 'demise' is: -
   The end of existence or activity; termination.

   In this case it quite clearly means the end of Mauresmo's activity as a tennis player.

   Secondly, how is an observation that someone has 'impressive serving shoulders' homophobic??

   And good luck with the lawyers. It's not even close to being libelous. Again, I'll help you with the definition: -

   'A false publication, as in writing, print, signs, or pictures, that damages a person's reputation.'

   The key word there being false. I can see the headline now... 'Mauresmo sues Boz in impressive shoulders case'. Pathetic.

   Keep up the good work Boz!

5. Dan G | 30 August 2010

   a few people with a chip on their shoulder here

6. the boz | 31 August 2010

   I always use my poetic licence as my defense for occasional semantic inconsistency (quick get the dictionary and look it up!!) but do consider my doing down of Clijsters' achievements this year a little less than the standard of accuracy I would have hoped to achieve. I knew about the wins of course but it is fair to say that I would have been more accurate to say 'little of significance' but am prepared to concede that I was a tad unfair to her. Having trouble getting that Australian Open defeat out of my mind! Zvonareva was 11th in the rankings when I wrote. The internet, like newspapers, makes ephemera of everything we write. Read it quick and move on!
   As for Mauresmo's shoulders. They were my favourite aspect of watching the tennis for many years. She certainly impressed me anyway as does Petkovic. I always wallow in a seriously good server and I've missed Amelie since her slide down the rankings (a death in a poetic sense my friend). One of my favourite Wimbledon winners. I'm sure she would know I meant no offence. Flattery often interpreted as offence by those with sliced potato on their person. Or should that be 'pomme frites'?