The Betfair Contrarian: Why Andy Murray will win the US Open

US Open Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 22 August 2011 / 2 Comments

Andy Murray with his Cincinnati Open trophy

"Murray’s victory in the Cincinnati Open, the final ATP World Tour Masters 1000 series event before the US Open, is hugely encouraging... "

With Alberto Contador failing in the Tour de France, the Tri Nations going to the wire and Arsenal drifting from [1.25] to [1.32] to lay for a top-six finish, the Contrarian is feeling smug about his form. Can British tennis' finest do him proud in New York?

Andy Murray claimed his second title of the season in Cincinnati on Sunday. Despite that success, he can still be backed at [6.8] to win his first Grand Slam at the US Open which begins next week. Here's why you should be desperate to get on board...

Cincinnati glory augurs well...

Andy Murray's victory in the Cincinnati Open, the final ATP World Tour Masters 1000 series event before the US Open, is hugely encouraging for his chances in New York. Six of the last eight champions have gone on to reach the final at Flushing Meadow, with three heading home with the biggest cut of the prize money. His previous Cincinnati win came three years ago and prompted easily his best US Open showing, finishing as runner-up, having never even made it to the quarter-finals on his five other attempts.

...especially as he beat Djokovic

For Murray, just as significant as landing the rather odd looking trophy in Cincinnati was who he had to defeat to do it, as he inflicted only the second loss of 2011 on world number one Novak Djokovic. The Scot's detractors will no doubt focus on the fact that Djokovic retired injured, but at the stage that he threw in the towel, Murray already led 6-4 3-0 and was on course to triumph over a player who has looked unbeatable at times in 2011. He was only previously stopped by Roger Federer at Roland Garros. The result means that Murray has won four of his last six meetings with Djokovic, whereas Federer has earned three and Nadal just one.

Federer isn't an immediate threat...

It might not feel like it because Nadal has got the better of him three times at Wimbledon, but the Spaniard isn't Murray's bogey Grand Slam opponent, as the Brit has actually conquered him twice, including in their one prior US Open clash. Instead, it is Federer who has caused him the most heartache, twice beating him in major finals, and in their last semi-final showdown. As third and fourth seeds, they can't face off until the final though, and with Federer having now gone a year without either a Grand Slam or ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title, few fancy him to get than far, with his odds to win the tournament longer than Murray's at [7.0].

...and Nadal is out of form

Nadal is the defending US Open champion, yet arrives in his worst form of the year, losing his first match at the Rogers Cup to Ivan Dodig and then exiting to Mardy Fish in the quarter-finals in Cincinnati. The defeat in Canada was particularly shocking as it was only the second time in over three years that he departed an ATP World Tour Masters 1000 series event prior to the quarter-finals.

It'll be fourth time lucky

As mentioned earlier, six of the last eight Cincinnati winners have made it to the final in New York and if Murray maintains that trend, history suggests that he'll be breaking his Grand Slam duck at the fourth time of asking. The last two men to have reached a fourth final having lost their first three were Andre Agassi at Wimbledon 1992 and Goran Ivanisevic at Wimbledon in 2001 and both ended their droughts. Ivan Lendl is the only player in the Grand Slam era to have lost his first four.

Comments (2)

1. Anonymous | 23 August 2011

   Are you serious? You have no understanding of the game of tennis. I assume you're writing this for free, you lack any kind of understanding.

2. Anonymous | 27 August 2011

   You cannot be serious! That ball was on the line. It was clearly on the line. How can you possibly call it out?