Tennis Betting Preview: Hard court triumph for Nadal would seal end of Federer's dominance

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 23 July 2008 / Leave a comment

Four out of the seven last Rogers Masters winners have gone on to triumph at Flushing Meadow. So the Toronto tournament is worth taking notice of, says Sean Calvert

The US hard court season kicks off in earnest with the Rogers Masters in Toronto and this event usually gives us a pointer as to who is likely to be in contention for the US Open next month.

The two finalists last year were Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, who of course went on to contest the championship match in New York and during the course of the last seven years, the winner of the Rogers Masters has gone on to prevail in New York four times (Safin in 2000; Roddick in 2003 and Federer in 2004 & 2006).

This year's tournament will be all about how Rafael Nadal fares on the hard courts after removing Federer's invincibility on grass in such spectacular fashion last month on the lawns of SW19.

The Spaniard has won here before - in 2005 when he defeated Andre Agassi - but his struggles on the faster surfaces have resulted in some resounding defeats, notably straight sets losses to Fernando Gonzalez and Jo Wilfried Tsonga in Melbourne and it will be fascinating to see if his game and his knees have improved sufficiently.

The wins over Federer in Paris and Wimbledon have had many observers calling time on the Swiss maestro's tenure as world number one and Toronto will be key to whether or not those claims are premature.

Should Nadal add hard courts to his list of mastered surfaces it would spell the end of Federer's years at the top of the pile and he must have been relieved to see his nemesis paired with Djokovic again in the bottom half.

Djokovic [4.7] has had a nice rest since Wimbledon and his victory in this event last year makes him a solid contender after being handed a kindly draw.

With only Stanislas Wawrinka [190.00] (4-2 to the Serb head-to-head) and Andy Murray [40.0] (4-0 Djokovic) to worry about before a likely meeting with Nadal [4.6] in the semi finals, he could prove the value in the field this year.

Nadal [4.6] has rather more to concern himself with, as he has both David Ferrer [95.0] and Richard Gasquet [90.0] in his quarter.

Ferrer holds a 2-1 hard court advantage over Nadal, including an epic four set victory at the US Open last year, whilst French prodigy Gasquet has pleasant memories of Toronto, having reached the final in 2006.

Federer [2.34] has Roddick [34.0] and Gonzalez [140.00] as the main contenders in his quarter - neither of whom he will be too concerned about, despite Roddick prevailing in their last meeting.

The other quarter is wide open, with Davydenko [80] and Blake [70] - both of whom have poor records in Toronto and are exposed and this is the quarter where a long shot may give you at least a bit of a run for your money.

The shortlist would include Feliciano Lopez [350.00] and Dmitry Tursunov [460.00] and either could be worth a minimum bet in a poor quarter. Neither of these two has what it takes to win the event of course, but they could be worth a trade, as could Wawrinka and Ferrer.

I like the look of the Swiss number two and he is the one to be on should Djokovic slip up and Ferrer has a great chance of getting past Gasquet (3-0 head-to-head and zero sets dropped) and into a clash with Nadal.

As for Murray, he is surely severely overvalued at [40.0], which must be based on his run to the semi finals here in 2006, however his straight sets conqueror that day, Gasquet, is more than twice the price - as they say in these parts: 'go figure'!

So, I've gone with Djokovic to Master Roger in Toronto, with small bets at big prices on Ferrer and Wawrinka in case of any early upsets, although upsets seem to be in short supply in men's tennis right now.

Federer will be hoping it stays that way.

Tags: Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Dmitry Tursunov, Feliciano Lopez, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Richard Gasquet, Roger Federer, Rogers Masters, Stanislas Wawrinka, Tennis Betting