US Open Betting / Ralph Ellis / 05 September 2008 /

Ralph Ellis points out that Nadal is the one top player Murray has never beaten but here's why this may be the match where that all changes.

So here´s a leap of faith. Andy Murray at [4.6] to beat world number one Rafael Nadal and go to the US Open final.

Ok so his brother Jamie has just missed out in the mixed doubles, and Andy isn´t the most reliable of men to bet on. And you can go on all night with other reasons why Nadal is such a safe bet to repeat his Wimbledon quarter-final win. But could this be the time to be brave and oppose him?

All year it´s been obvious that Nadal has been a man on a mission. A man who did what nobody since Bjorn Borg had achieved and won first in Paris and then at Wimbledon. A man who flew half way round the world to China to win an Olympic gold medal. A man who then flew all the way back again to chase another Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows. A young man blazing with intensity and desire to become world number one and achieving that target.

But, and here´s the big but, still a man. And at some time that extraordinary effort must catch up with him. Of course it might not be in New York, but then again it might be and the sense is that if Murray is ever to catch the brilliant young Spaniard on an off night it could be now.

The Mail´s experienced tennis writer Mike Dickson believes he´s seen the first signs of Nadal slipping from his amazing standards. The Spaniard was forced to start his quarter final at 11.30pm and didn´t finish until 2.15 in the morning as he beat Mardy Fish in four sets. Nadal complained: "There should be a limit on when to start, but we know that TV rules in this."

And Dickson also reports "It is encouraging for Murray that there are signs the Spaniard´s astonishing movement looks to be fractionally slowed by the incredible weight of matches he has played over the past six months."

The bad news for Murray is that the weather forecast suggests New York will catch the tail end of Hurricane Hanah and there could be 24 hours delay to the semi-final. Then again it could end up being squeezed into the early hours of Sunday morning and make it even tougher on the Spaniard!

Murray, in constrast, is reaping a perverse benefit from his poor preparation and early exit from the Olympics. Dickson reports he looks relaxed and is in bullish mood. "I don´t want to lose in the semi-final," he said. "I watched the parade of champions on the first Monday - you see all the winners and it makes you realise that it´s winning that really counts and that´s what I´m here to do."

The Americans love that mentality, and Murray likes the super fast courts. Nadal is of course the one top player he has never beaten - but he did run him close on a similar hard court in Australia and this could be the time. If the outright match odds win still looks too much of a gamble then try laying Nadal in straight sets at [2.48].

Five things you might not know about Murray v Nadal

1.Andy´s brother Jamie isn´t hanging around to see the big clash - he says he needs a holiday after losing the mixed doubles final

2.At least Mum Judy and grandparents Roy and Shirley will stick around after flying in to New York just in time to see Jamie go out

3.Murray is only the fifth Brit to reach a Grand Slam singles semi-final since the War - the others were Roger Taylor, John Lloyd, Greg Rusedski and Tim Henman

4.If Nadal beats Murray and goes on to win the title he´ll be the only man to do the "small slam" of French, Wimbledon and US since Tony Trabert in 1955

5.Nadal´s early morning marathon against Mardy Fish was still not the latest play has ever finished in the US Open. That was Mats Wilander versus Mikael Pernfors which went on until 2.26am in 1993.

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