Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 02 November 2007 / 2 Comments

"Magical" Matthew Walton looks at which players offer the best opportunities for trading on tennis and which don't...

Broadly speaking, there are two philosophies when it comes to betting. You're either a backer or a trader.

What do we mean by these terms?

Backer - you place your bet at the start of a match, or tournament, and then sit back and let it run its course, win or lose. You don't meddle in-running, you don't hedge your bet, you don't trade. In short, you're the embodiment of the infamous 'If' poem and treat 'triumph and disaster just the same'.

Trader - you're prepared to get your hands dirty and play the exchanges as they ebb and flow throughout the course of an event. You don't let a losing bet drift away, you want to make a winning position even greater. In short, you monitor the action, work the exchanges and aim to boost your profits.

Whichever camp you find yourself in, this feature should interest you. Why? Because if you're a trader it will give you important information about which players offer the best trading opportunites. And, if you're simply a backer, it will open your eyes to the possibilities of adding a bit of trading to your armoury. Place an extra string in your bow.

It's all about volatility.

If two players hold serve throughout a match and we have two tie-breaks, or maybe three, then we have very little volatility on the exchanges. This lack of volatility reduces trading options and stops the trader trading and the previously reticent backer starting to hedge.

We need breaks of serve. We need one player to be losing serve one minute, breaking back the next. A see-saw match makes for volatile markets on the exchanges which in turn makes for good money making opportunities.

Hence we created a specific rating for each player on tour.

This was created by using two separate sources of data - one relates to when a player is serving, the other when he is returning serve. The two figures are then added together to produce a total on the 'volatility scale'.

The top twelve were: Volandri (134), Simon (125), Bjorkman (111), Mayer (108), Ferrer (107), Nieminen (107), Monaco (105), Chela (104), Davydenko (104), Robredo (102), Murray (98) and Spadea (96).

The bottom dozen were: Ljubicic (10), Lopez (11), Roddick (13), Mahut (20), Becker (22), Querrey (23), T. Johansson (31), Clement (32), Serra (39), Tursunov (42), Stepanek (42) and Gicquel (42).

Notable others were: Haas (53), Gonzalez (53), Blake (58), Federer (64), Hewitt (68), Djokovic (69), Mathieu (70), Karlovic (71), Nadal (73), Gasquet (74), Youzhny (75) and Baghdatis (77).

In simple terms, the more often a player breaks serve the higher his score. And, likewise, the more often he loses his serve the higher his score. And, of course, vice-versa.

Applying that to the list it means that Filippo Volandri is the most 'volatile' player and Ivan Ljubicic the least. Or, in layman's terms, Volandri breaks serve a lot but can't hold his own whilst Ljubicic holds serve very often but finds it very hard to break his opponent.

You'll see a strong grouping around 64-74. This is generally created by players having a low points score when serving (i.e. they hold serve frequently) but a higher rating for the return of serve (i.e. they break serve more often than most). Characteristics which tend to make you a good player.

It's no surprise to see the big serving, hard court players at the bottom. Ljubicic, Roddick, Mahut and Querrey etc. They tend to be involved in longer matches, with more games, more tie-breaks and very few breaks of serve.

At the other end we see more of the clay-courters. The likes of Volandri, Ferrer, Monaco, and Chela. The nature of clay, perhaps, which allows for more frequent breaks of serve.

Focus on the two extremes. Those players who rank highly, especially those who aren't always on clay like Murray, Davydenko and Robredo. Their matches are much more likely to provide trading opportunities.

Those ranked at the bottom will provide much less as serve tends to dominate in their matches.

BUT, and it's a big but, what you must realise is that when breaks of serve occur with highly volatile players it is less of a seismic shock than if it happens to a guy at the other end of the scale.

So, in match play scenarios and put very, very simply if Volandri loses his serve he hasn't lost the set and in the same way, if he breaks serve he hasn't won it. He's just as likely to mess it all up again, or fight his way back into the match, because that's how he plays.

As for Ljubicic, again put very simply, if he breaks serve then he wins the set and if he gets broken then he's lost it.

The less often a break of serve happens, the more profound its effect when it does. Hence you need to pay more heed to breaks involving certain players and less to others.

Be mindful of this volatility. Use this information to play the exchanges with a better idea of who are the players to back, or lay, and how and when to do it. A break of serve means different things to different players and knowing this will help you on the exchanges.

Tags: "Magical" Matthew Walton, tennis betting, tennis trading, Volandri