Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 11 October 2007 / 1 Comments

"Magical" Matthew Walton tells us why the stats suggest Andy Murray was a fair price at 1.11 to beat Robredo after winning the first set 6-0

Why Good Starters Sometimes Make Bad Finishers - The Perils of 6-0 Betting.

It looked as though all bets were off last week in the final of the Moselle Open when Andy Murray demolished Tommy Robredo in the first set. The Scot took it 6-0 in just over 20 minutes play. The title was his ... surely!

However, what was to follow for backers of Murray (whether for the match or the tournament's outright betting) was a gradual dissipation of that early optimism as Tommy Robredo steadily fought back to win the match, and with it the title, 0-6 6-2 6-3.

The exchanges had Murray down as low as 1.11 to win the match after that first set rout of the Spaniard. Question is, was that a decent bet? Were exchange backers right in taking such a short price or were they guilty of committing that unpardonable sin - that of trying to 'buy money' on a so-called cert.

All matches this season were studied, from all of the 57 events covering Qatar to Tokyo inclusive, and the following set of statistics were generated.

There have been 63 matches this season where a particular player has won the first set 6-0. Of those matches, 4 have come on grass, 29 have been on clay and 30 have come on faster surfaces (hard, carpet). They produced :-

Grass 4 first set winners 6-0 - all 4 went on to win the match = 100%
Clay 29 first set winners 6-0 - 25 went on to win the match, 4 lost = 86%
Hard/Carpet 30 first set winners 6-0 - 28 went on to win the match, 2 lost = 93%

That makes total of 90% (57/63) where the player who won the first set of the match 6-0 then went on to close out the victory.

Therefore, to put that into betting terms, backers of Murray at 1.11 were pretty much on the money. They could have expected to collect 90% of the time. So if that bet were struck on all 63 occasions, backing the player who won the first set 6-0, then the maths breaks down as :-

Stakes: 63 matches x £100 = £6,300. Returns: 57 x 1.11 x £100 = £6,270.

As we can see, the exchange line of 1.11 was a pretty accurate reflection of Murray's odds of victory. You could even argue that his chance of success was probably 28/30 (the hard/carpet statistic) which would equate to :-

Stakes: 30 matches x £100 = £3,000. Returns: 28 x 1.1 x 100 = £3,108.

In summary, it has to be said that Murray's loss was similar to getting evens on the toss of a coin and simply calling it the wrong way. It was a fair bet at a fair price even though, on this occasion, backers didn't collect.

One thing to note is the five other players who join Murray in the 'Hall of Shame'. They are Kristof Vliegen in Sopot, Sergio Roitman* in Vina Del Mar, Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo in the French Open, Robby Ginepri in Sydney and, maybe no surprise, Marat Safin in Monte Carlo. NB - *Roitman lost as he retired at the end of the second set through injury.

Incidentally, the statistics for 6-1 first set winners, as you might expect, are slightly less convincing. Of the 234 matches this year where a player won the first set 6-1, that same player went on to win 201 times (86%).

Also, in Grand Slams, the percentages do increase. The number of 6-0 first set winners who go on to win the match is 13/14 (93%) and those who win 6-1 is 36/39 (92%). This is no doubt due to the wider range of abilities in these bigger fields - players who get walloped in the first set don't tend to fight back too often!

All those backers of Andy Murray can take heart that they didn't commit the 'cardinal sin' by taking the 1.11. The stats back up their action even if, on this occasion, they came up short.

What it proves is that a knowledge of the fgures does help when weighing up the 'true' value of any given situation So keep reading these columns and I'll give you all the figures I can!!

To read more about Andy Murray:

http://www.andymurray.com/

Tags: Andy Murray, Moselle Open, tennis betting, tennis statistics