Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 07 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton recaps what we've learned so far this year and whether our findings would have earned a profit on the tennis betting front

The Good, Bad And Ugly From The ATP Tour

"Magical" Matthew Walton takes a look back at March's action on tour and revisits some former articles that should be continuing to make YOU profits.

March on the ATP Tour - The Fall Of Federer, Rafa rises and Davydenko Delivers!

Back to school before we head off to mainland Europe!

Our monthly review of what's been happening on the ATP Tour is a useful exercise in refreshing ourselves on a few topics which we've discussed in the past.

Remember, we can always take something from our study of these performance patterns and the lessons we learn in these pieces are valuable tools in our daily battle against other (less informed) backers.

March has seen less tournament action because of the two big Masters Series events at Indian Wells and Miami but from hereon it's full steam ahead through the European clay court season to the French Open, and then it's Wimbledon.

Here's the main results from March :-

Again, no success for Federer. Nadal finds some form. Djokovic and Davydenko land Masters Series titles. A few new names come to light.

Question is, should we have been able to profit from these results if we had followed some of our own advice from previous articles? Hence this monthly review of some of our earlier features, highlighting points which should be making you money. And then a few words about the notable winners and losers of the past month.

Sorry, Roger, You're Just Too Darn Old!

Believe it or not but at 26 Roger Federer is moving into 'veteran' status. This is the age we pinpointed as being the beginning of the end for top players ... and the world No.1 is trying his hardest to prove it! In 2008, Llodra and Gonzalez are the oldest winners (both 1980) with Kei Nishikori (1989) the youngest. The average birth date of this year's winners is late 1983 - i.e. around 24/5. Time to reach for the slippers Mr. Federer.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/the-perfect-age-for-a-tennis-p-1-041007.html

Seeding Committees - 'You Don't Know What They're Doing'

Seeding committees, like handicappers, often get it wrong - hence we can profit. In 2007 24% of No.1 seeds won and 21% of events were won by non-seeds! This year from 20 events the winners have been - No.1 (15%), No.2 (5%), No.3 (15%), No.4 (15%), No.5 (0%), No.6 (10%), No.7 (5%), No.8 (0%) and unseeded (35%). In a year of surprises make sure you keep and eye on these outsiders.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/the-mysterious-world-of-seedin-7-230807.html

Tie-Breaks - Who Can You Rely On At 6-6?

Which players have the bottle to win the key points? Last year the top five players were Djokovic, Federer, Roddick, Murray and Baghdatis. This year we see Djokovic 7-1 (87%) leading the way again. Baghdatis 6-1 (85%) is up there too along with Nalbandian 8-2 (80%). Federer 4-2 (66%) and Murray 5-3 (62%) are respectable but Blake 1-3 (25%) and Hewitt 1-6 (14%) are ones to be wary of when the heat is on. Find out more ...

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/djokovic-king-of-the-tiebreaks-1-261007.html

It's The Country That Matters, Not The Player

Another factor for consideration in finding winners is the player's country of origin. Spain led the way in 2007 with Switzerland, Argentina and France hot on their heels. This year, from 20 events, the table is headed by Russia (4 wins) then the USA (3). Spain, Serbia and Great Britain (all 2) come next with Germany, Japan, Argentina, Chile and Belgium all providing a single winner.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/knowing-which-countries-produc-131207.html

How To Split The Tour into 'Bite-Size' Chunks

Recently we spoke about the season being, in effect, a series of mini-seasons tacked together. Next week we'll look at the European clay court season but previously we discussed the post-Australian Open to pre-Indian Wells period. The argument was, only top drawer players could win twice in this short spell. This year Nicolas Almagro (Brazil & Mexico) plus Andy Roddick (San Jose & Dubai) achieved this notable feat.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/general/atp-tour-betting-break-it-up-into-manageable-bite-size-210208.html

Changing Of The Guard At The Top

This year has seen a number of surprises. However, the three big events in Melbourne, Indian Wells and Miami have all been won by established players at the head of the world rankings. Djokovic (twice) and Davydenko. The bottom line is, when the event is a big one, it's the best players who step up to the plate. Next up we have Masters Series clay events in Monte Carlo, Rome and Hamburg - guess who might figure there?

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/players-under-the-microscope/the-irresistible-force-against-the-immovable-object-who-130308.html

Do take a few minutes to look through the articles refered to, either to familiarise yourself with the topics or simply to refresh your memory.

The point being, we constantly strive to discover new ways to approach the tennis betting markets. A better angle of attack can lead to better profits ... and that's what we're all after at the end of the day!

And these are just a few comments on those players we've put into the notebook over the past few weeks, let's see how they manage now that we've off to the clay courts of Europe.

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