Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 09 May 2008 / Leave a comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton reviews April on tour, updating the findings of former articles and telling you 'Who's Hot' and 'Who's Not' on tour right now.

Time for our customary recap on last month's events on the ATP Tour. A chance to re-visit some of our former articles and refresh our minds about a few strategies and statistics which should be of use to all our betting activities on Betfair.

Once again we'll return to a number of previous topics of discussion and show their continued relevance to the most recent events on the circuit. Then we'll mark your card with a few players to watch, and a few to swerve, during this coming month's tournaments. In short, 'Who's Hot' and 'Who's Not' just at the moment.

We start, as usual, with a look at the results from April's six main events. It's been clay all the way and that usually means one thing ... Rafael Nadal.

Two more titles for the Spanish ace (including a record fourth straight Monte Carlo crown) a return to form for David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. Also, Roger Federer finally wins an event in 2008 and what about Marcel Granollers-Pujol? More of him in a moment.

Question is, should we have been able to profit from these results if we had followed some of our own advice from previous articles? Hence a quick spin dowm memory lane to see whose been paying attention...

Federer & Nadal - What Are You Doing To The Formbook?

Whilst discussing the partial demise of the world's No.1 and No.2 players, we offered several names for future reference. Players who we said you needed to be 'quick enough to latch onto' in coming events. Last named was none other than the Spaniard, Marcel Granollers-Pujol who won in Houston after being available at the better side of [51.0] . Question was, were you on?

Challenge Tour Results Can Help You Find The Next Tsonga

This follows on from the previous point. As players drift out of contention at the top of the game, so new players start to come through from the bottom. Granollers-Pujol, again, is a good example of this (Challenge Tour winner and RU this year before Houston) and there will be more like him coming along in the future. In fact, you'll find more details about another potential newcomer in the 'Who's Hot' and 'Who's Not' list below.

The European Clay Court Season - Finding Diamonds In The Dirt

Plenty of pointers here as we previewed the current clay season with a host of facts and figures. One point we made was the number of seeded players making finals and winning titles. Looking at the table above, of the 12 finalists there have been 11 seeds, and nine of them were either No.1 or No.2 seeds. You can't argue with the formbook so do take the opportunity to review this article with a view to the coming clay tournaments.

Break Points - Are They Really That Important?

Juan Monaco lost to Igor Andreev the other day in Rome. In the match the Argentine forced more break points than the Russian - 14 to 10 - but only took four compared to the Russian's six. And so he lost. We discussed this very point in an article which highlighted the fact that as backers we should embrace such an ebb and flow of service breaks - as they make for volatility, and volatility makes for good betting markets!

Who Says Home Advantage Doesn't Matter in Tennis?

Undoubtedly certain events do favour home players - early season tournaments Down Under, events in the Far East and so on. In Europe and North America this effect is less pronounced but still we find in Valencia, for example, five of the last six winners are Spanish (RU the other year), same goes for Barcelona where the last six winners have all been native players! It is well worth checking out the national bias of certain events.

So, by all means refresh your memory with a look through these articles. They have had a bearing on the action which took place last week, the games which are happening this week and, no doubt, the events to be played next week. Never be afraid to take a little bit of time to improve your betting technique and don't let bad habits start to take over!

Finally, we've compiled our monthly list of 'Who's Hot' and 'Who's Not' on tour. Players who we consider to be in decent form or those we feel are on the slide. Also a new face who we feel could be the next Marcel Granollers-Pujol ...

We should have a great month ahead on the ATP Tour, make sure you get your share of the profits via Betfair with the aid of our regular tennis features. Next stops Hamburg, Portschach, Casablanca and then it's Paris!

Tags: ATP Tour, Marcel Granollers-Pujol, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Tennis Betting