Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 27 September 2007 / Leave a comment

"Magical" Mattew Walton looks at whether there is any value in consistently backing your player to win in straight sets

Logic would suggest that the further you get into a tournament the more competitive the matches become. In such, looking at the set betting markets on the exchanges you should lean more towards a possible 2-1 scoreline, rather than 2-0, the nearer the action gets to the final.

Sounds reasonable. In the first round you find seeded, top ten players up against all manner of journeymen and no-hopers but as the rounds pass, and the wheat is sorted from the chaff, we find better players going head-to-head. This leads to closer matches, more of them liable to go into a deciding set.

This year, looking at the 37 tournaments which have been played using a 32-runner field, like this week, the results do support such an opinion. This is how the breakdown appears :-

Round 1 592 matches - 164 go to decider = 28%
Round 2 296 matches - 100 go to decider = 34%
QF 148 matches - 55 go to decider = 37%
SF 74 matches - 21 go to decider = 28%
F 37 matches - 14 go to decider = 38%

No surprises in some respects. You would expect a slow rise as the rounds become more competitive due to the weaker players falling by the wayside.

The interesting statistic is that of the Semi-Finals. Not just a lower percentage, only 28%, but a level equal to that of the Round 1 matches. What are we to surmise? That there are as many mis-matches in Semi-Finals as there are in Round 1. Maybe so.

That, in itself, is a useful statistic when looking at such matches. So, for example, if you're considering a match bet in the semis where one player is around the 1.60 mark to win (and something around 2.50 to win 2-0) you might be wiser going for a straight sets win for your man. Why? Here's the maths ...

You want to back Player A to win a match. He's 1.60 to win the match or 2.50 to win it 2-0. Back the same bet 100 times (and let's presume he wins all 100) you would return £6,000 profit (60x100) on the simple win bet approach. You'd win every time.

However, if you back him to win 2-0 on those 100 occasions, the stats tell you that he will only win 72% of those in straight sets and 28% will go to a decider (he may still win the match but your correct score bet will lose). The return would be £10,800 (150x72).

That's about 80% extra profit in your Betfair account, even allowing for the fact that 28% of the time you back a loser!

The same equation can be applied to all the other match bets, you just need to be aware of the statistics such as those above (plus previous head-to-head form and current performance levels).

And, remember, if he loses the match you'd lose on either of the above scenarios - so the maths still add up whether he wins 100 of 100, or 50 out of 100, or whatever.

Also, it's worth adding that the surface doesn't have a great bearing on the straight sets/decider debate. We thought it might, so we had a look.

Of the 37 events this year, 16 have been on clay and 21 have been on faster surfaces (hard, carpet and grass).

The number of Round 1 matches to go to a decider are 27% on clay and 28% on the other surfaces. It reads 36%-32% for Round 2, 39%-36% for the QF's.

The big differences come in the Semi-Finals and Finals where the figures are 25%-31% and 25%(clay)-47%(fast) respectively.

That means, in Finals on clay we only see one in four matches going to a deciding set whereas on other surfaces it's nearer to one in every two matches. More cause for a careful weighing up of the exchange prices/percentages.

What this whole issue shows is whilst many punters prefer the safe and familiar approach, which is to back Player A just to win the match, there is mileage at looking for other angles of attack. The exchanges offer such a medium through the correct score betting and if it increases your return, well, it's worth exploring!

Tags: Magical Matthew Walton, set betting, tennis betting, tennis stats