Betfair Official Blog

Set Betting - How Playing The Percentages Can Net You Bigger Profits

"Magical" Mattew Walton looks at whether there is any value in consistently backing your player to win in straight sets

Logic would suggest that the further you get into a tournament the more competitive the matches become. In such, looking at the set betting markets on the exchanges you should lean more towards a possible 2-1 scoreline, rather than 2-0, the nearer the action gets to the final.

Sounds reasonable. In the first round you find seeded, top ten players up against all manner of journeymen and no-hopers but as the rounds pass, and the wheat is sorted from the chaff, we find better players going head-to-head. This leads to closer matches, more of them liable to go into a deciding set.

This year, looking at the 37 tournaments which have been played using a 32-runner field, like this week, the results do support such an opinion. This is how the breakdown appears :-

Round 1 592 matches - 164 go to decider = 28%
Round 2 296 matches - 100 go to decider = 34%
QF 148 matches - 55 go to decider = 37%
SF 74 matches - 21 go to decider = 28%
F 37 matches - 14 go to decider = 38%

No surprises in some respects. You would expect a slow rise as the rounds become more competitive due to the weaker players falling by the wayside.

The interesting statistic is that of the Semi-Finals. Not just a lower percentage, only 28%, but a level equal to that of the Round 1 matches. What are we to surmise? That there are as many mis-matches in Semi-Finals as there are in Round 1. Maybe so.

That, in itself, is a useful statistic when looking at such matches. So, for example, if you're considering a match bet in the semis where one player is around the 1.60 mark to win (and something around 2.50 to win 2-0) you might be wiser going for a straight sets win for your man. Why? Here's the maths ...

You want to back Player A to win a match. He's 1.60 to win the match or 2.50 to win it 2-0. Back the same bet 100 times (and let's presume he wins all 100) you would return £6,000 profit (60x100) on the simple win bet approach. You'd win every time.

However, if you back him to win 2-0 on those 100 occasions, the stats tell you that he will only win 72% of those in straight sets and 28% will go to a decider (he may still win the match but your correct score bet will lose). The return would be £10,800 (150x72).

That's about 80% extra profit in your Betfair account, even allowing for the fact that 28% of the time you back a loser!

The same equation can be applied to all the other match bets, you just need to be aware of the statistics such as those above (plus previous head-to-head form and current performance levels).

And, remember, if he loses the match you'd lose on either of the above scenarios - so the maths still add up whether he wins 100 of 100, or 50 out of 100, or whatever.

Also, it's worth adding that the surface doesn't have a great bearing on the straight sets/decider debate. We thought it might, so we had a look.

Of the 37 events this year, 16 have been on clay and 21 have been on faster surfaces (hard, carpet and grass).

The number of Round 1 matches to go to a decider are 27% on clay and 28% on the other surfaces. It reads 36%-32% for Round 2, 39%-36% for the QF's.

The big differences come in the Semi-Finals and Finals where the figures are 25%-31% and 25%(clay)-47%(fast) respectively.

That means, in Finals on clay we only see one in four matches going to a deciding set whereas on other surfaces it's nearer to one in every two matches. More cause for a careful weighing up of the exchange prices/percentages.

What this whole issue shows is whilst many punters prefer the safe and familiar approach, which is to back Player A just to win the match, there is mileage at looking for other angles of attack. The exchanges offer such a medium through the correct score betting and if it increases your return, well, it's worth exploring!