Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 07 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton invites us to look back at what we've learned so far this year

More Facts, Figures & Feedback On The ATP Tour

"Magical" Matthew Walton reviews February's action to illustrate some of the lessons we should have already learned about our tennis betting.

February on the ATP Tour - Have You Been Paying Attention?Time for a bit more revision!

At the start of each month we aim to take a time-out to stop and think about the issues we have previously discussed. It's an opportunity to take stock of the topics we have covered and bring our studies up to date by applying them to the most recent action on tour.

After all, the subjects we cover in these articles should be making you think about the way you bet, perhaps change the way you bet and, most importantly, improve the way you bet.
Every month we will choose half a dozen of our previous articles and illustrate their ongoing relevance in light of what we have witnessed most recently on tour. And, as usual, the past month has afforded us with plenty of talking points!

During the month of February we have seen nine events won by obvious players, not so obvious players and what you might consider the run-of-the-mill players.

Question is, should we have been able to profit from these results if we had followed some of our own advice from previous articles? Hence this monthly stock-take of how our past ideas and investigations have fared.

Fighters, Flakes And Ones For The Future

Go back to our first ever article and you'll see Kei Nishikori. The Japanese teenager, and future star, landed his first ATP title at Delray Beach at a three-figure price, over (100.00) on Betfair. What's more we've also seen some of our fighters show the battling qualities we highlighted (Novak Djokovic) and some of our flakes fail miserably (Richard Gasquet). Click the link below to find out who else should be in your notebook.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/general/fighters-flakes-and-ones-for-t-140807.html

Take The First Set 6-0 or 6-1 And You Win, Right?

When players storm through the first set of matches, do they keep it going to win with ease? So far in 2008 a 6-0 first set has happened 12 times and every time that player has won the match. That's a 100% success rate (it was 90% in 2007). As for the 6-1 scoreline, this has happened 50 times in the 16 events completed to date. The results are 43 wins (86%) and 7 losses (14%) - similar to 2007's findings. Find out more below.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/those-who-backed-murray-at-111-111007.html

Why It Can Be Better To Back A Straight Sets Win

You would expect matches in the latter stages of events to be more competitive and so longer. Not so. This year the percentage of two set matches is R1 (23%), R2 (36%), QF (38%), SF (30%), F (35%). These figures echo our findings for 2007 and explain why you might be better backing a short-priced player to win in straight sets as opposed to a simple win bet in the outright match betting market. See this subject discussed below.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/set-betting-how-playing-the-pe-1-270907.html

Bouncebackability - Which Players Are Lovers Not Fighters

Which players are better able to fight back after dropping the first set of their matches. Surprise leader in 2007 was Andy Murray and, guess what, he's doing it again in 2008 - latest being against Roger Federer, no less, in Dubai. Rafael Nadal and Paul-Henri Mathieu also rate highly but no surprises to see our old friend, Richard Gasquet, throwing in the towel again. Twice he's lost the first set of a match this year and twice he's lost!

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/general/bouncebackability-fact-or-fict-160807.html

Defending Champions Aren't Winning Like They Used To

We've yet to see a player successfully defend his title in 2008. Is the defending champion of a tournament the first person you should scrub off your list when considering the winner this time around? Some players are much better than others at retaining their titles. Who are these players and when is it best to back them? We took a look through the past few years on the ATP Tour to see how the statistics vary.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/bet-against-average-players-de-291107.html

Can We Still Expect Maiden Tour Winners?

Each year we see a new batch of players reaching maturity and landing their first successes on tour. This year we've seen a couple already in Kei Nishikori and Sergiy Stakhovsky. Should we be looking for more first-timers and is this necessarily a good thing when we come to using Betfair? Would you prefer volatility or uniformity when it comes to the formbook?

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/new-kids-on-the-block-are-firs-221107.html

Please take a few minutes to look through the articles referred to, either to familiarise yourself with the topics or simply to refresh your memory.

The point being, we constantly strive to discover new ways to approach the tennis betting markets. A better angle of attack can lead to better profits ... and that's what we're all after at the end of the day!

Post a comment

Name:

Email Address:

URL:

Remember personal info?

Comment: