Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 18 October 2007 / 1 Comments

"Magical" Matthew Walton looks at how you can use long-term stats to your advantage during in-play matches

Blink And You've Missed It! How To Take 'Big Price' Match Betting Opportunities.

Striking a good bet is often a case of split-second timing. That's because such golden opportunities don't always present themselves, so when they do, you need to be there, poised, ready to take advantage.

This phenomena is particularly worthy of note in tight matches where there is little leeway towards either player. It's in these games that you need to have your wits about you if you want to take advantage of the fleeting chances which pass before your eyes. Blink and you've missed them.

One such example appeared in the Stanislas Wawrinka versus Nicolas Kiefer match in the first round of the Madrid Masters. On paper this was a close run affair. They hadn't met before, Kiefer was the 'better player' but Wawrinka was in 'better form'. As a result, the prices were quite close with the Swiss player, Wawrinka, slightly favoured at around 1.90 with Kiefer nearer 2.20.

Early breaks of serve, one by each player, sent ripples through the exchange but by the time the play reached 5-5 in the first set the range of trades was fairly restricted.

Kiefer - MINIMUM trade 1.48, MAXIMUM trade 2.50

Wawrinka - MINIMUM trade 1.69, MAXIMUM trade 3.00

Not hugely volatile but as the set drew towards its conclusion, the swing in trades began to increase in size and frequency.

The crunch came in the next few minutes. Kiefer serves at 5-5 and falls 30-40 down, he levels at deuce and then falls 40-A down. His price reaches a high of 3.50 whilst Wawrinka bottoms out at 1.50.

What do you do ...

Time to consult the stats. Kiefer saves 63% of the break points he faces. Wawrinka wins just 39% of the break points he generates. Kiefer wins 85% of all his service games. Wawrina wins just 24% of all his return games.

What price are you going to take? Wawrinka at 1.50 or Kiefer at 3.50.

Bear in mind this is still the first set, both players have broken each other's serve before, both players are evenly matched, both players started the match either side of 2.00 on the exchange. And, remember, Kiefer is serving.

What happens next ...

Kiefer saves the break points and holds serve to lead 6-5. Next service game, Wawrinka now trying to stay in the set, the Swiss player blows it and is broken to love by Kiefer. The German wins the first set 7-5. He is now 1.35 to win the match.

In the space of 7 points, from 5-5 (40-A) to 7-5, Kiefer had gone from 3.50 to 1.35. The play lasted a little over 3 minutes.

Decided to put the kettle on? Thought you might just read the paper for a moment? Chance gone. That bird has flown.

Kiefer goes on to break to lead 3-1 in the second set (hits 1.10) and serves out the match to take it 7-5 6-3. He never gets bigger than 1.35 again.

This match highlights a number of points :-.

1. Don't jump into close matches before the off. Choosing one player over another in a 50:50, toss of a coin affair, may not always be the right move.

2 Wait until a divergence of prices occurs. Long-term you may be better backing the so-called 'underdog' at 3.50 in-running but only when you ...

3. ... have the stats at your fingertips. You can easily get the figures up on another window whilst following the match on the exchange.

4. Make an informed judgement on the basis of player's performance.

The movement of the market in this match, pushing Kiefer out to 3.50, was premature. Not for the first time did the exchange follow a knee-jerk shift in favour of the wrong player.

Ok, Kiefer conveniently broke in the next game and went on to win comfortably but the key was even if it went to a tie-break, that 3.50, in the context of what had gone before and what we knew about the player's abilities, was well out of line.

If you were quick enough to take the price then you would have been the one who boosted your profits by more than 100%.

We saw this again in R2 as Juan Carlos Ferrero hit 3.00 in his match with Carlos Moya, another close run thing on paper. And, if you want an extreme example, David Nalbandian hit 50.00 before defeating Tomas Berydch (mind you at 4-6 0-4 against the Argentine this example is maybe a little fanciful).

Just remember that 50/50 matches, those where both players are hovering around 2.00 before the off, will produce in-running opportunities to back one (or both) players at much bigger odds. If you have the patience and the stats at your disposal then you can strike some decent bets at big prices.

Tags: "Magical" Matthew Walton, in-play betting on Betfair, Kiefer, tennis betting