Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 01 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton talks us through the valuable lessons we've learned so far that will help us with our tennis betting

January on the ATP Tour - What Have We Learned So Far?

Time for a bit of revision!

In previous articles we have highlighted trends in the performance of certain players and analysed patterns in the way tournaments are decided. All with the aim of helping YOU to locate winners more easily.

Now, it may only be early in 2008 but already in this year's six completed events (Doha, Chennai, Adelaide, Auckland, Sydney & Melbourne) we have seen a repetition of many of these trends.

Therefore, each month we will be reviewing the latest action on the men's circuit so as to refresh your memory as to what data you should be accumulating, analysing and using in order to make full use of Betfair - and, you could argue, to make sure what we said in the past still makes sense!

Whether you've read all the previous articles or not, take a few minutes to consider what points we've made and how many of them have proven correct already, just four short weeks into the new campaign.

Here's a refresher on half a dozen previous articles and how their predictions are already starting to come true. Plus an all-important list of Who's Hot and Who's Not on the ATP Tour in January.

Players fancied to struggle in 2008

Lleyton Hewitt, Ivan Ljubicic, Andy Roddick, Tomas Berdych and Juan Ignacio Chela (plus the injured Guillermo Canas and Tommy Haas) were tournament winners in 2007 - but all were fancied to struggle this year. So far none of them has set the tour alight in 2008. Who should you be wary of backing this year?

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/general/the-best-lays-of-2008-whos-des-281207.html

Challenger Tour players must be noted in main events

The example of Sirianni in Adelaide is a good starting point (he won twice on the Challenger Tour in late 2007). Also, we have the four time Challenger Tour winner from last year, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Challenger Tour winners of today are the main tour players of tomorrow - but do you know who they are? It's time you found out.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/the-wonderful-world-of-tennis/challenger-tour-results-can-help-you-find-the-next-tson-250108.html

Home players in their native tournaments

Playing in your own backyard is a distinct advantage. Already we've seen the likes of Joseph Sirianni and Chris Guccione both over-achieve in their home events. Sirianni made the SF's in Adelaide (l. Llodra) and Guccione the final in Sydney (l. Tursunov). Discover the facts behind the benefits of performing in front of your own fans.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/who-says-home-advantage-doesnt-200907.html

Inexperience is no barrier to Grand Slam finals

Just a couple of weeks ago we said that newcomers are more than capable of reaching Grand Slam deciders - and there goes Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to make the Australian Open final as his first ATP final (last player to do this was Gustavo Kuerten at Roland Garros in 1997). How early in their careers have players made it through to Grand Slam Sunday?

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/australian-open/relative-inexperience-is-no-barrier-to-making-grand-sla-120108.html

Set betting isn't as logical as you'd think

At the sharp end of Grand Slams, matches should get more competitive (and longer) - not so we argued. The last 15 matches at the Australian Open (including all of R4, the QF's, SF's & F) produced 11 straight sets wins, that's 73%. You would expect there to be more four and five set matches, not so. Find out more about the illogical theory of set betting.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/australian-open/grand-slam-set-betting-why-it-pays-to-oppose-the-logica-180108.html

Players' performance the week after Grand Slams

Interesting to see how Fernando Gonzalez and Juan Monaco fare this week in Chile. Both made little impression in Melbourne but the facts state that a poor Grand Slam showing precedes a strong run the week after. Make sure you note the players who are ready to forget about Grand Slam disappointment when back on the main tour ...

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/grand-slams-taking-an-early-ba-7-050907.html

As you can see by this review of some of our previous articles, there are distinct patterns in tennis performances. And, as we have always argued in these columns, recognising such patterns - and acting upon them before others - is the key to making profitable use of Betfair.

We've just chosen a select few examples here but each month we will review more of the theories which we have discussed during the past few months - updating you on results and providing 'real life' examples of how these theories could (and should) be used to make your use of Betfair more profitable.

Finally, we've also collated a table of Who's Hot and Who's Not on tour. Our take on the month's action and a word on which players are hitting aces and which ones are burying it in the net.

You might not agree with all the selections but that's the beauty of the game - we don't all see it the same way!

Next week we're back to regular action but remember what we've learned so far and don't forget to use it!

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