Wonderful World of Tennis / Matthew Walton / 11 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

We all know about Rafael Nadal's love of the dirt but "Magical" Matthew Walton tells us who are the other names that will be looking forward to the clay court season, such as Tommy Robredo...

Having negotiated the first quarter of the season, the world's leading players now head to the Continent for the start of the European clay court swing.

Over the next seven weeks there are ten tournaments prior to the French Open and, as a prelude to this mini season, we're going to revisit a topic touched upon a month or two ago - remember when we spoke about the tennis calendar being a series of mini seasons linked together in a chain, each with their own little micro-climate of form?

Well, here we have the first part of the European clay court season leading up to Roland Garros. For your perusal, we've collated the results from these tournaments for the past three years.

You'll see the winners and runners-up for each event listed in bold type and below them the respective semi-finalists beaten by them en route to the final. And interesting reading it makes for ...

On the back of this data, here's some pointers for the clay court season ahead :-

Rafa's Amazing Record

Rafael Nadal is the only player to have won more than once in any one year. In fact his hat-trick of hat-tricks (Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome) in 2005, 2006 and 2007 is a stunning achievement.

Multiple Finalists Are Rare

Very few players even manage to make more than one final in any one year.
2005 - Nadal & Coria
2006 - Nadal, Federer, Robredo & Davydenko
2007 - Nadal, Federer

Even Semi-Finalists See Little Familiarity

We also struggle to find players making multiple semi-finals (or better) in any one year. 2005 - Nadal, Coria, Davydenko, Gasquet, Melzer, Ferrero & Christophe Rochus
2006 - Nadal, Federer, Robredo, Davydenko, Nalbandian, Melzer, Almagro & Simon
2007 - Nadal, Federer, Mathieu, Berdych & Hewitt

Dodgy South American Form

There's a distinctly European feel to these events. South Americans won only one event in 2007 with Juan Monaco (Portschach) and David Nalbandian was the sole winner in 2006 (Estoril). Even in 2005 we had only three wins by Gaudio (Estoril), Nalbandian (Munich) and Puerta (Casablanca). That's five winners out of a total of 30 events (17%).

Defending Champions

With players having set patterns to their French Open preparation, repeat wins are likely as players regularly return to the same events. Davydenko (Portschach 2005, 2006), Nicolas Almagro (Valencia 2006, 2007) and of course Nadal illustrate this point. Roger Federer (Monte Carlo 2006, 2007) is the only repeat finalist.

Look For Seeded Winners

From the 30 winners produced by these 10 tournaments over the past three years, only six have been unseeded (20%). In year order (2007-2006-2005) the winning seeds are :-
Estoril (3-1-2), Valencia (3-x-7), Houston (x-x-1), Monte Carlo (2-2-x), Barcelona (1-1-8), Munich (x-5-1), Rome (2-2-5), Hamburg (1-8-1), Portschach (x-1-1), Casablanca (8-7-6)

Right Time Of Year

Certain players do catch the eye for making the latter stages consistently year after year, albeit in different events. Nadal and Federer are standing dishes but Carlos Moya, Tommy Robredo and Nikolay Davydenko all feature at least once in each of the three years.

Experience Is The Key

The case of Nadal can muddy the waters a bit. However, looking through the lists you'll find that none of the other events are won by real whipper-snappers. Most are established tour players suggesting that clay takes more mastering than other surfaces.

Given all the above data it's possible to draw some definite conclusions on who should do well and which players look set to struggle.

First up, lay the big-hitters. Ljubicic, Querrey, Tsonga, Ancic look set to struggle and even the three former winners in Houston (Roddick, Fish and Karlovic) will do well to figure in any finals this year - especially outside of the States.

Secondly, back the Spanish. With the dominance of European players look to Spain for the best bets. Nadal is a gimme but Robredo, Ferrer, Almagro must all feature at some point during the next couple of months.

Thirdly, be wary of the South Americans. There is a big difference between the early season clay court events in South America and these in Europe. Both may well be on clay but many of the players who do well in places like Acapulco and Buenos Aires struggle on the Continent. We might see flashes from Nalbandian and Monaco but this table offers little hope for the likes of Canas, Chela and even Fernando Gonzalez.

Fourthly, can you trust these guys? It's a crucial time for Federer, Djokovic and Murray. For different reasons all have questions to answer this Summer. Federer must start to win again, Djokovic must transfer his progress onto clay and Murray must make up for an injury-ravaged 2007 clay season.

And finally, can Rafa do the four-peat? You bet he'll be trying but watch him start to move his focus solely onto Paris. Masters Series events provide the preparation but the French Open is the real deal. He might alter his schedule to go all out at Roland Garros.

There should be some great tennis ahead, even before we get to Paris, and it all starts in Estoril, Valencia and Houston. Use the information we've provided, shrewdly apply it to the Betfair markets and you shouldn't go far wrong.

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