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The Betfair Contrarian - Why Andy Murray won't make the ATP Masters Cup

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The Betfair Contrarian has reared his ugly head again - this time telling us why British Number One Andy Murray will miss out on a Top 8 spot in the end of year rankings and subsequently the ATP Masters Cup

The Contrarian: Why Andy Murray won't finish in the Top 8 ranking at the end of the year

Sourpuss Andy Murray is currently sixth in the ATP rankings, so if the season were to end today he could plunge head first into the money pool of the ATP Masters Cup. In last year's event, the world's top eight players competed for a prize fund of $4.45 million. The forecast for Murray though is for prolonged grumpiness - as he won't be getting his hands on any of it. Here's why...

The big guns haven't woken up yet

At this relatively early stage of the season, some of the world's top players are yet to squeeze themselves into the top eight, and someone's going to have to make way for them. Roger Federer, who has finished as leader of the ATP race in each of the past four years, is sitting just outside the top eight, as he has only competed in one tournament outside the Australian Open, compared to Andy Murray's four. Four of the other players who reached last year's Masters Cup - Nikolay Davydenko, David Ferrer, Fernando Gonzalez and Richard Gasquet - are also below Murray.

Clay lies ahead
All the tournaments in the next two months are on clay, including Roland Garros (in Murray's only French Open appearance in 2006 he crashed out in the first round.) Murray claims that he prefers clay, yet he has won only one of his six previous Masters matches on that surface and has a dismal record compared to those who will be pushing for his place in the top eight. Davydenko reached the semis last year, and Ferrer and Gonzalez have both reached the quarters, which awards 50 points compared to the one point another first-round knockout would earn Murray.

Murray shines in smaller tournaments...

Murray has won two tournaments and got to the quarter-finals of another, yet his ATP points total is still nothing compared to the points Jo-Wilfried Tsonga earned just by reaching a Grand Slam final in Australia. If guys like Davydenko, Ferrer and Gasquet continue to outperform Murray in the Grand Slams, those tournament wins will count for very little.

...and he struggles when it counts

He may boast a 2-1 record in head-to-head action with Roger Federer, but those two victories came at the round of 32 stage of the 2006 Cincinnati Masters and this year's Dubai Open, whereas the one time they met in a tournament final, in Bangkok in 2005, it was Federer who got the job done.

The longer he waits, the harder it gets

Andy Murray has now competed in nine Grand Slams without reaching the quarter-finals, yet of the Australian Open semi-finalists, Federer reached the quarters of a Grand Slam event at the eighth time of asking, Nadal took five attempts to win a Grand Slam, Djokovic took six attempts to hit the last eight while Tsonga's was playing only his fifth Grand Slam event. The longer Murray leaves it to put a good run together at a Grand Slam, the more experienced and harder to beat his rivals in the ATP race become.

The world rankings don't lie

While the ATP standings determine the men who will compete for the Masters Cup, the overall world rankings also give a clear indication of who you can expect to see pushing for a Masters Cup berth. Right now, Murray is ranked eleventh.

Inconsistency gets you nowhere

If he could beat best-in-the-world Federer two weeks ago in Dubai, how did he then lose in straight sets to Davydenko just three days later? Maybe he caught Federer on an off-day or didn't have enough left by the time he faced Davydenko. Even if it was just pure maddening inconsistency, it doesn't bode well for Murray's chances of making the last eight of a Grand Slam, or maintaining his strong early form throughout the year.