Wonderful World of Tennis / Matthew Walton / 12 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

With the tennis season over, its time for the players to recharge their batteries and for us tennis punters to have a think about what we're doing right and wrong. "Magical" Matthew Walton gives us a hand.

As backers, the brief tennis 'off-season' gives us a window of opportunity to take stock of the whole discipline of tennis betting.

Therefore, in several recent articles, we've discussed the relative strengths and weaknesses of certain players on the ATP Tour - predicting as to whether they will flourish or flounder in 2009 - and tried to identify who are the players to back and who are the ones to lay when the new campaign kicks off in early January.

But having pointed the spotlight at the players themselves, now is the time to turn it on the other key people in the betting process - namely, ourselves.

It's all very well highlighting which players will do well and determining which ones will struggle ... but if we start backing them, or continue to back them, in the wrong manner (at the wrong prices, in the wrong matches, against the wrong opponents) then all our preparation for the new season is rendered useless.

Hence, in this article, we're going to take a look at tennis match betting (to be followed subsequently by outright betting) and pinpoint ten areas of study which you should, as a Betfair backer who wants to make their tennis betting pay, make yourself familiar with and apply to your day-to-day match betting.

These points are given in a rough order of importance but it's fair to say that all should be brought into the reckoning when you're placing a bet - because, as we know, betting to win is all about considered actions, not impulse decisions. It's about the head and not the heart.

So here is a guide to the ten key areas that you should consider when betting on the exchanges. A knowledge of these factors and an application of their effects WILL make your betting more professional and, therefore, profitable.

1.Head-to-head Form

Always the starting point but, crucially, don't be put off if players have never met before. This generally means layers (or backers if you're working in reverse) have less to go on and if they haven't done their homework like you have here then you're one step ahead of them already. Also, don't be put off if one player trails another marginally or even significantly - look for pertinent data here such as how long ago these matches were, what surface were the matches played on, has one player improved/declined since then. In simple terms, if the head-to-heads are 0-0 don't simply swerve the match or if Player A leads Player B 4:1 on past meetings don't prematurely write off Player B. This area of form is just a starting point.

2. Recent Form

Similarly important. Clearly a player who has been playing up to form of late and has been relatively active (i.e. played within the last couple of weeks) is going to be a more solid proposition than a guy whose been losing badly and possibly hasn't been out on court for several weeks. Note also, a player might be winning matches but if there's a lot of 7-6's in the third set or he regularly loses the first set prior to winning, well, it does show a fighting spirit but it might also suggest that he's not at the top of his game.

3. Tournament Form

Worthy of note if players make a beeline for specific events whether to please home fans, placate sponsors, prepare for other events or simply because they just happen to do well there. Clearly not as important as, say, course form in golf (after all, a tennis court is pretty much a tennis court) but another factor which can help to tip the balance one way or the other. Do look out for guys who regularly play events and at least make the QF's.

4. Defending Ranking Points

A follow-on from the previous point - but slightly different. A player can have good tournament form but he might not be defending points if he happened to do badly at the venue 12 months previously. Given the nature of the ranking's system any player who made the QF's, SF's or final in 2008 will be very keen to maintain those points on his rolling year-on-year total by doing as well as possible in 2009. Again, not a huge factor in it's own right but another brick in the wall of overall match form.

5. Surface Form

Consider Rafael Nadal on clay and carpet. A stunning 91% win rate on dirt and a moderate 61% success rate indoors. If you had to play him, what surface would you choose? This is one of the most important factors. Look for two things (i) what percentage of matches a player plays on each surface (ii) his subsequent win-loss rate on each surface. This can be a great leveller or major shifter of momentum in a betting market.

6. Top 10 Form

A good way of assessing any two players, where perhaps the head-to-head form is inconclusive or totally non-existent, is to compare them against an identical set of alternative opponents e.g. the top ten. This would be of more help to players lower down the rankings but it's another way of ascertaining relative abilities and likely performances.

7. Serve Statistics

Used in conjunction with surface conditions, serving data revolves around percentage of first serves, service games won and break points saved. As much a help for in-running bets as outright match bets.

8. Return Statistics

Similar to serve, look for the key statistics. Do players have good return figures, do they earn many break points and, crucially, what percentage of them do they take.

9. Injuries

Players retire from matches for any number of reasons. However, it does pay to be wary of any player who (i) retired from his last match or (ii) is making a comeback after a long injury lay-off. That said, a guy who retires with a stomach upset is different from one who sprained his ankle - do note the difference.

10. Price

Last but definitely not least has to be the price. We're blessed on Betfair with the best prices but, as ever, we have to use that privilege with due diligence. A 'big price' can only be seen as a big price after you've covered off the above points. Sadly it's not an exact science to determine what is good or bad value but should you choose to employ some or all of the checks mentioned above you will get a much better handle on the market. Remember, value is available at any price, you've just got to know how to spot it.

To sum up - there is a fine line between analysis and over-analysis. You could lose yourself completely in an in-depth investigation of the ten points mentioned here and end up never having a bet! Similarly, you can lose your shirt in a split second on a rash, ill-judged bet which could have been avoided with just a little prior research.

The fundamental remains, more so on Betfair, that you make money by knowing more than your bookmaker (your layer or backer in this scenario). As such, even a modicum of form study can pay you handsome dividends. Put in the time and you can pull out the profit!

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